Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$156.62

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 26 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,399

Combined PnL+$384.49

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,813

Combined PnL-$227.86

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 82.6¢	$959.7	$1.0K	+$74.99	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$403.48	$383.35	-$20.13	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.4¢	$277.56	$383.35	+$105.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$125.91	—	-$125.91
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 80.3¢	$180.39	$212.5	+$32.1	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
machinelearned	Downavg 71.7¢	$136.11	$175	+$38.89	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
ohioism	Downavg 96¢	$144.08	$150.08	+$6	64% 39591-22581 (62172)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.8¢	$153.21	$132	-$21.21	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$112.38	$107.58	-$4.8	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$69.15	$107.58	+$38.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$43.23	—	-$43.23
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$87.24	$100.28	+$13.03	62% 43491-26415 (69906)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$63.18	$100.28	+$37.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$24.07	—	-$24.07
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$99.3	$75	-$24.3	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$51.75	$75	+$23.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.4¢	$47.55	—	-$47.55
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 38¢	$132.8	—	-$132.8	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 64.2¢	$84.32	$131.36	+$47.04	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 44.4¢	$75.47	$170	+$94.53	66% 98373-50815 (149188)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 83.5¢	$151.92	$76.69	+$9.68	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65.8¢	$69.73	$105.55	+$35.82	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 66¢	$39.6	$60	+$20.4	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$27.1	—	-$27.1	74% 101965-36273 (138238)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71¢	$42.6	$60	+$17.4	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$35.42	—	-$35.42	59% 61841-42785 (104626)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$20.37	$28.43	+$8.06	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 77¢	$19.25	$25	+$5.75	55% 43713-36124 (79837)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 69¢	$12.34	$17.88	+$5.54	65% 20812-11390 (32202)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	52% 88930-83410 (172340)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$24.22	—	-$8.54	61% 93423-58740 (152163)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5.42	$9.51	+$4.09	51% 16897-16488 (33385)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2.2¢	$8.95	—	-$8.95	46% 37715-44132 (81847)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$959.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$74.99

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$403.48

Value

$383.35

PnL

-$20.13

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

Both legs:

Down$277.5672.4¢+$105.78

Up$125.9137.5¢-$125.91

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$180.39

Value

$212.5

PnL

+$32.1

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$136.11

Value

$175

PnL

+$38.89

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$144.08

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$6

Record

64%

39591-22581 (62172)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$153.21

Value

$132

PnL

-$21.21

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$112.38

Value

$107.58

PnL

-$4.8

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

Both legs:

Down$69.1564.3¢+$38.43

Up$43.2348.6¢-$43.23

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$87.24

Value

$100.28

PnL

+$13.03

Record

62%

43491-26415 (69906)

Both legs:

Invested

$99.3

Value

$75

PnL

-$24.3

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

Both legs:

Down$51.7569¢+$23.25

Up$47.5529.4¢-$47.55

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$132.8

Value

—

PnL

-$132.8

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$84.32

Value

$131.36

PnL

+$47.04

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$75.47

Value

$170

PnL

+$94.53

Record

66%

98373-50815 (149188)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$151.92

Value

$76.69

PnL

+$9.68

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$69.73

Value

$105.55

PnL

+$35.82

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$39.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.4

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

—

PnL

-$27.1

Record

74%

101965-36273 (138238)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$42.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$17.4

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$35.42

Value

—

PnL

-$35.42

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$20.37

Value

$28.43

PnL

+$8.06

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$19.25

Value

$25

PnL

+$5.75

Record

55%

43713-36124 (79837)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$12.34

Value

$17.88

PnL

+$5.54

Record

65%

20812-11390 (32202)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

52%

88930-83410 (172340)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$24.22

Value

—

PnL

-$8.54

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$5.42

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$4.09

Record

51%

16897-16488 (33385)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

—

PnL

-$8.95

Record

46%

37715-44132 (81847)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 26 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1d61bd51...f23cd0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793128500

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $1.0K

+$74.99

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$20.13

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $212.5

+$32.1

machinelearned

Down — $175

+$38.89

ohioism

Down — $150.08

+$6

ply-pm0

Down — $132

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

G-Penis-Monster

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0