Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$393.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 25 top traders (84%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares13,979

Combined PnL+$708.76

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$315.2

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$4.75	59% 61841-42785 (104626)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 86.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$201.82	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$125.97	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.4¢	$664.78	$814.83	+$150.04	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$653.21	$641.16	-$12.05	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$366.54	$641.16	+$274.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$286.67	—	-$286.67
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$746.4	$903.03	+$156.63	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$536.82	$903.03	+$366.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$209.58	—	-$209.58
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$281.79	$285.89	+$4.09	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$160.99	$285.89	+$124.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$120.8	—	-$120.8
machinelearned	Downavg 65.3¢	$244.9	$275.66	+$30.75	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$301.8	$197.47	-$104.34	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$128.8	$197.47	+$68.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$173	—	-$173
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$213	$200	-$13	51% 16897-16488 (33385)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$130	$200	+$70
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$83	—	-$83
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 69.5¢	$208.38	—	-$208.38	48% 22949-24961 (47910)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 82.3¢	$148.15	$180.01	+$31.86	58% 59958-43771 (103729)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 58.7¢	$86.13	$136.91	+$50.78	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
ohioism	Downavg 81.8¢	$126.24	$154.29	+$28.05	64% 39591-22581 (62172)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$111.23	$99	-$12.23	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$50.82	$99	+$48.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$60.41	—	-$60.41
ST std0<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$59.69	$90	+$30.31	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$69	—	-$69	66% 98373-50815 (149188)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$53.93	$56.21	+$2.28	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 72¢	$36.03	$50.04	+$14.01	56% 57395-44340 (101735)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.2¢	$39.9	$38.11	-$1.31	61% 93423-58740 (152163)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 90.7¢	$42.48	$46.82	+$4.34	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$39.9	$42	+$2.1	55% 43713-36124 (79837)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 83¢	$27.28	$28.08	+$0.8	52% 88930-83410 (172340)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 37.5¢	$33.98	—	-$33.98	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 85.3¢	$19.83	$23.25	+$3.42	74% 101965-36273 (138238)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$9,003.26

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$4.75

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,600.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$201.82

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,036.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$125.97

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$664.78

Value

$814.83

PnL

+$150.04

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$653.21

Value

$641.16

PnL

-$12.05

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

Both legs:

Down$366.5457.2¢+$274.63

Up$286.6738.8¢-$286.67

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$746.4

Value

$903.03

PnL

+$156.63

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

Both legs:

Down$536.8259.4¢+$366.21

Up$209.5852¢-$209.58

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$281.79

Value

$285.89

PnL

+$4.09

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

Both legs:

Down$160.9956.3¢+$124.89

Up$120.850.3¢-$120.8

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$244.9

Value

$275.66

PnL

+$30.75

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$301.8

Value

$197.47

PnL

-$104.34

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

Both legs:

Down$128.865.2¢+$68.67

Up$17352.6¢-$173

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$213

Value

$200

PnL

-$13

Record

51%

16897-16488 (33385)

Both legs:

Down$13065¢+$70

Up$8341.5¢-$83

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$208.38

Value

—

PnL

-$208.38

Record

48%

22949-24961 (47910)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$148.15

Value

$180.01

PnL

+$31.86

Record

58%

59958-43771 (103729)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$86.13

Value

$136.91

PnL

+$50.78

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$126.24

Value

$154.29

PnL

+$28.05

Record

64%

39591-22581 (62172)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$111.23

Value

$99

PnL

-$12.23

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

Both legs:

Down$50.8251.3¢+$48.18

Up$60.4140.8¢-$60.41

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$59.69

Value

$90

PnL

+$30.31

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$69

Value

—

PnL

-$69

Record

66%

98373-50815 (149188)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$53.93

Value

$56.21

PnL

+$2.28

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$36.03

Value

$50.04

PnL

+$14.01

Record

56%

57395-44340 (101735)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$39.9

Value

$38.11

PnL

-$1.31

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$42.48

Value

$46.82

PnL

+$4.34

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$39.9

Value

$42

PnL

+$2.1

Record

55%

43713-36124 (79837)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$27.28

Value

$28.08

PnL

+$0.8

Record

52%

88930-83410 (172340)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$33.98

Value

—

PnL

-$33.98

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$19.83

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$3.42

Record

74%

101965-36273 (138238)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 25 top traders (84%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9b5dc20c...6139bc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793128200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$4.75

wzbbb

Down — $1.8K

+$201.82

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.2K

+$125.97

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $814.83

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $275.66

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded