Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$53.23

Smart Money Signal

17 of 24 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,753

Combined PnL+$339.5

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,220

Combined PnL-$392.73

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$713.89	$568.22	-$145.67	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$385.14	$568.22	+$183.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$328.75	—	-$328.75
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$394.66	$357	-$37.66	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$236.32	$357	+$120.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$158.34	—	-$158.34
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 75.9¢	$374.85	$370	-$4.85	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$45.09	—	-$45.09	59% 61841-42785 (104626)
ST std0	Upavg 77.9¢	$185.86	$205.97	+$20.1	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 67¢	$199.86	$161.7	-$38.16	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$108.4	$161.7	+$53.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$91.46	—	-$91.46
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 85.8¢	$175.6	$173.97	-$0.73	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$129.92	$158.63	+$28.71	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.5¢	$122.88	$158.63	+$35.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 3.1¢	$7.04	—	-$7.04
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$141.07	$165.46	+$24.39	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$104.66	$165.46	+$60.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.4¢	$36.41	—	-$36.41
machinelearned	Upavg 61.4¢	$122.29	$193.2	+$70.91	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 35.5¢	$304.79	—	-$304.79	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 88.2¢	$133.36	$119.98	-$13.37	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48¢	$96.01	$200.02	+$104.01	58% 50666-36801 (87467)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 57¢	$84.7	$148.55	+$63.85	51% 16897-16488 (33385)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$115.09	$33	-$82.09	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$88.69	—	-$88.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 80¢	$26.4	$33	+$6.6
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$15.12	—	-$15.12	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$11.38	—	-$11.38	55% 47823-39403 (87226)
ohioism	Upavg 63¢	$64.13	$101.77	+$37.64	64% 39591-22581 (62172)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 68¢	$47.76	$59.61	+$20.03	65% 20812-11390 (32202)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 5.7¢	$10.83	—	-$10.83	46% 37715-44132 (81847)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 75¢	$45	$60	+$15	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 62¢	$37.2	$60	+$22.8	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 98.4¢	$25.87	$26.28	+$0.41	63% 50719-29966 (80685)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81¢	$14.57	$15.33	+$0.76	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 81¢	$9.58	$9.11	-$0.47	61% 93423-58740 (152163)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$713.89

Value

$568.22

PnL

-$145.67

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

Both legs:

Up$385.1467.8¢+$183.08

Down$328.7529.7¢-$328.75

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$394.66

Value

$357

PnL

-$37.66

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

Both legs:

Up$236.3266.2¢+$120.68

Down$158.3430.3¢-$158.34

wzbbb

Invested

$374.85

Value

$370

PnL

-$4.85

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.09

Value

—

PnL

-$45.09

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

std0

Invested

$185.86

Value

$205.97

PnL

+$20.1

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$199.86

Value

$161.7

PnL

-$38.16

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

Both legs:

Up$108.467¢+$53.3

Down$91.4630.9¢-$91.46

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$175.6

Value

$173.97

PnL

-$0.73

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$129.92

Value

$158.63

PnL

+$28.71

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

Both legs:

Up$122.8877.5¢+$35.75

Down$7.043.1¢-$7.04

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$141.07

Value

$165.46

PnL

+$24.39

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

Both legs:

Up$104.6663.3¢+$60.8

Down$36.4119.4¢-$36.41

machinelearned

Invested

$122.29

Value

$193.2

PnL

+$70.91

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$304.79

Value

—

PnL

-$304.79

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

ply-pm0

Invested

$133.36

Value

$119.98

PnL

-$13.37

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

PBot-6

Invested

$96.01

Value

$200.02

PnL

+$104.01

Record

58%

50666-36801 (87467)

gansinimen

Invested

$84.7

Value

$148.55

PnL

+$63.85

Record

51%

16897-16488 (33385)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.09

Value

$33

PnL

-$82.09

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

Both legs:

Down$88.6942.4¢-$88.69

Up$26.480¢+$6.6

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.12

Value

—

PnL

-$15.12

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.38

Value

—

PnL

-$11.38

Record

55%

47823-39403 (87226)

ohioism

Invested

$64.13

Value

$101.77

PnL

+$37.64

Record

64%

39591-22581 (62172)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$47.76

Value

$59.61

PnL

+$20.03

Record

65%

20812-11390 (32202)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.83

Value

—

PnL

-$10.83

Record

46%

37715-44132 (81847)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$60

PnL

+$15

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$22.8

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$25.87

Value

$26.28

PnL

+$0.41

Record

63%

50719-29966 (80685)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$14.57

Value

$15.33

PnL

+$0.76

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.11

PnL

-$0.47

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 24 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfa9ced5a...6d13cb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793127900

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Up — $370

-$4.85

0x50f7

CTR

Down — $0

-$45.09

std0

Up — $205.97

+$20.1

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$38.16

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $173.97

-$0.73

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$28.71

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$24.39

machinelearned

Up — $193.2

+$70.91

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