Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 84%
1 arb excluded
$15.8K
-$60.83
Smart Money Signal
21 of 26 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9 | 59% 61841-42785 (104626) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$21.69 | 74% 101965-36273 (138238) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 98.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.82 | 57% 7389-5686 (13075) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 98.4¢ | $988.59 | $948.69 | -$19.96 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 96.9¢ | $300.93 | $300 | -$0.93 | 54% 10142-8602 (18744) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99.9¢ | $289.73 | $287.15 | -$2.58 | 55% 49869-40477 (90346) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 99¢ | $262.6 | $262.6 | +$0 | 46% 37715-44132 (81847) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 96.6¢ | $236.61 | $245 | +$8.39 | 55% 43713-36124 (79837) |
AL almach | Upavg 99¢ | $229.52 | $229.52 | -$0 | 55% 47823-39403 (87226) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72.9¢ | $132.87 | $153.83 | +$20.96 | 54% 15086-12638 (27724) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 91.3¢ | $99.04 | $108.46 | +$9.41 | 60% 11816-7738 (19554) |
SE seeeeeeb | Upavg 83¢ | $145.53 | $175.34 | +$29.81 | 49% 617-630 (1247) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $64.12 | $45.76 | -$18.36 | 55% 8270-6709 (14979) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.5¢ | $35.48 | $45.76 | +$10.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 2.6¢ | $28.64 | — | -$28.64 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 48.1¢ | $60.68 | $107 | +$46.32 | 66% 98373-50815 (149188) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $52.8 | $60 | +$7.2 | 65% 123715-66149 (189864) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 95.1¢ | $58.48 | $49.53 | -$8.95 | 49% 4856-5023 (9879) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 92.8¢ | $41.46 | $43.04 | +$1.59 | 67% 53055-26486 (79541) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $42.57 | $43 | +$0.43 | 52% 88930-83410 (172340) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $21.98 | — | -$21.98 | 58% 50666-36801 (87467) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 87.4¢ | $20.33 | $23.27 | +$2.94 | 66% 123993-63821 (187814) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $12.12 | — | -$12.12 | 56% 13362-10674 (24036) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 99.3¢ | $20.38 | $10.52 | +$0.09 | 65% 20812-11390 (32202) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 93% 22269-1715 (23984) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $5 | +$0.75 | 61% 93423-58740 (152163) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.76 | — | -$1.76 | 55% 7021-5754 (12775) |
Invested
$8,995.03
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9
Record
59%
61841-42785 (104626)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,147.24
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$21.69
Record
74%
101965-36273 (138238)
Invested
$1,496.89
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.82
Record
57%
7389-5686 (13075)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$988.59
Value
$948.69
PnL
-$19.96
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
Invested
$300.93
Value
$300
PnL
-$0.93
Record
54%
10142-8602 (18744)
Invested
$289.73
Value
$287.15
PnL
-$2.58
Record
55%
49869-40477 (90346)
pspspsps5Invested
$262.6
Value
$262.6
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
37715-44132 (81847)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$236.61
Value
$245
PnL
+$8.39
Record
55%
43713-36124 (79837)
Invested
$229.52
Value
$229.52
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
47823-39403 (87226)
Invested
$132.87
Value
$153.83
PnL
+$20.96
Record
54%
15086-12638 (27724)
Invested
$99.04
Value
$108.46
PnL
+$9.41
Record
60%
11816-7738 (19554)
Invested
$145.53
Value
$175.34
PnL
+$29.81
Record
49%
617-630 (1247)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$64.12
Value
$45.76
PnL
-$18.36
Record
55%
8270-6709 (14979)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.68
Value
$107
PnL
+$46.32
Record
66%
98373-50815 (149188)
Invested
$52.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.2
Record
65%
123715-66149 (189864)
Invested
$58.48
Value
$49.53
PnL
-$8.95
Record
49%
4856-5023 (9879)
Invested
$41.46
Value
$43.04
PnL
+$1.59
Record
67%
53055-26486 (79541)
Invested
$42.57
Value
$43
PnL
+$0.43
Record
52%
88930-83410 (172340)
Invested
$21.98
Value
—
PnL
-$21.98
Record
58%
50666-36801 (87467)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$23.27
PnL
+$2.94
Record
66%
123993-63821 (187814)
Invested
$12.12
Value
—
PnL
-$12.12
Record
56%
13362-10674 (24036)
Invested
$20.38
Value
$10.52
PnL
+$0.09
Record
65%
20812-11390 (32202)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
93%
22269-1715 (23984)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.75
Record
61%
93423-58740 (152163)
Invested
$1.76
Value
—
PnL
-$1.76
Record
55%
7021-5754 (12775)
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