Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,093

Combined PnL+$242.9

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,142

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.08	56% 29174-23025 (52199)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 42.3¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 51¢	$775.47	$873.95	+$98.49	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 70.5¢	$794.15	$810.22	+$16.07	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 37.7¢	$559.57	—	-$559.57	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 31.7¢	$183.43	—	-$183.43	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 61.3¢	$268.98	$235.34	-$33.14	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
ST std0	Upavg 53.8¢	$195.54	$208.2	+$12.66	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 58.6¢	$163.99	$201.88	+$37.89	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 35.3¢	$220.27	—	-$220.27	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 44.7¢	$106.72	$171.83	+$65.11	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$357.95	$135.69	-$222.26	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$90.91	$135.69	+$44.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$267.04	—	-$267.04
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 69.5¢	$103.1	$120	+$16.9	54% 10142-8602 (18744)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$411.51	$78.74	-$332.78	55% 47823-39403 (87226)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$55.12	$78.74	+$23.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.8¢	$356.4	—	-$356.4
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 82¢	$130.44	$99	-$31.44	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 92.4¢	$122.56	$98.67	-$23.89	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 68.2¢	$70.2	$102.89	+$32.69	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$58.8	$52.67	-$2.87	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13¢	$14.55	—	-$14.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.6¢	$38.77	$52.67	+$11.67
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 98.2¢	$61.67	$60.21	-$1.46	52% 88930-83410 (172340)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 10.3¢	$45.98	$26.84	-$19.14	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.3¢	$27.23	—	-$27.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$18.76	$26.84	+$8.08
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$35.92	—	-$35.92	66% 98373-50815 (149188)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 97.7¢	$38.28	$38.12	+$2.09	61% 93423-58740 (152163)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$31.91	—	-$31.91	49% 617-630 (1247)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 58¢	$161.63	—	-$161.63	48% 22949-24961 (47910)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$5.18	—	-$5.18	59% 61841-42785 (104626)

THG.

Invested

$2,977.92

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.08

Record

56%

29174-23025 (52199)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$1,334.37

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

wzbbb

Invested

$775.47

Value

$873.95

PnL

+$98.49

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$794.15

Value

$810.22

PnL

+$16.07

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$559.57

Value

—

PnL

-$559.57

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$183.43

Value

—

PnL

-$183.43

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$268.98

Value

$235.34

PnL

-$33.14

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

std0

Invested

$195.54

Value

$208.2

PnL

+$12.66

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$163.99

Value

$201.88

PnL

+$37.89

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$220.27

Value

—

PnL

-$220.27

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$106.72

Value

$171.83

PnL

+$65.11

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$357.95

Value

$135.69

PnL

-$222.26

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

Both legs:

Up$90.9167¢+$44.78

Down$267.0473¢-$267.04

thesidehustle

Invested

$103.1

Value

$120

PnL

+$16.9

Record

54%

10142-8602 (18744)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$411.51

Value

$78.74

PnL

-$332.78

Record

55%

47823-39403 (87226)

Both legs:

Up$55.1270¢+$23.62

Down$356.487.8¢-$356.4

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$130.44

Value

$99

PnL

-$31.44

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

asdaefef

Invested

$122.56

Value

$98.67

PnL

-$23.89

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$70.2

Value

$102.89

PnL

+$32.69

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$58.8

Value

$52.67

PnL

-$2.87

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

Both legs:

Down$14.5513¢-$14.55

Up$38.7773.6¢+$11.67

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$61.67

Value

$60.21

PnL

-$1.46

Record

52%

88930-83410 (172340)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$45.98

Value

$26.84

PnL

-$19.14

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

Both legs:

Down$27.2310.3¢-$27.23

Up$18.7669.9¢+$8.08

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.92

Value

—

PnL

-$35.92

Record

66%

98373-50815 (149188)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$38.28

Value

$38.12

PnL

+$2.09

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.91

Value

—

PnL

-$31.91

Record

49%

617-630 (1247)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$161.63

Value

—

PnL

-$161.63

Record

48%

22949-24961 (47910)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.18

Value

—

PnL

-$5.18

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf526e8f1...d348df

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793125200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.0K

+$30.08

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.3K

wzbbb

Up — $873.95

+$98.49

uninformedfloww

Up — $810.22

+$16.07

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Down — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $235.34

-$33.14

std0

Up — $208.2

+$12.66

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $201.88

GoodFallen

Down — $0