Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

19 of 29 top traders (66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,788

Combined PnL-$20.85

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,704

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Up — 66%Down — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 48.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$59.58	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 80.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$494.58	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 45.7¢	$770.09	—	-$770.09	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.7¢	$921.12	$949.41	+$28.29	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 51.3¢	$606.59	$651.89	+$45.3	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
AL almach	Upavg 64¢	$479.88	$544.16	+$64.28	55% 47823-39403 (87226)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 47.7¢	$412.1	—	-$412.1	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
machinelearned	Upavg 74¢	$236.58	$183.17	-$53.42	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 60.8¢	$456.05	—	-$456.05	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 52¢	$120.36	$182.31	+$61.95	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 50.5¢	$293.88	—	-$293.88	77% 9217-2683 (11900)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 66.8¢	$403.01	$358.51	-$44.5	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 34¢	$174.92	$500	+$325.08	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
└ Down leg	Downavg 2¢	$4.92	—	-$4.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$170	$500	+$330
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 65.1¢	$330.26	$507	+$176.74	66% 98373-50815 (149188)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 71.5¢	$301.39	$240	-$61.39	54% 10142-8602 (18744)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 81¢	$162.26	—	-$162.26	58% 59958-43771 (103729)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$215.01	$287.09	+$72.08	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$66.63	—	-$66.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.7¢	$148.38	$287.09	+$138.71
ST std0CTR	Downavg 63.1¢	$157.97	—	-$157.97	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 60.2¢	$154.78	$257	+$102.22	12% 17875-132699 (150574)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$81.1	$180	+$98.9	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.3¢	$15.1	—	-$15.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$66	$180	+$114
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Downavg 80.4¢	$103.55	—	-$103.55	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$44.93	—	-$44.93	55% 43713-36124 (79837)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 54¢	$28.8	$53.3	+$24.5	65% 20812-11390 (32202)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 49¢	$28.91	$59	+$30.09	58% 50666-36801 (87467)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$22.75	$38.85	+$16.1	65% 3820-2062 (5882)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,492.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$59.58

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,617.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$494.58

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$770.09

Value

—

PnL

-$770.09

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

wzbbb

Invested

$921.12

Value

$949.41

PnL

+$28.29

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

ply-pm0

Invested

$606.59

Value

$651.89

PnL

+$45.3

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

almach

Invested

$479.88

Value

$544.16

PnL

+$64.28

Record

55%

47823-39403 (87226)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$412.1

Value

—

PnL

-$412.1

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

machinelearned

Invested

$236.58

Value

$183.17

PnL

-$53.42

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$456.05

Value

—

PnL

-$456.05

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$120.36

Value

$182.31

PnL

+$61.95

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$293.88

Value

—

PnL

-$293.88

Record

77%

9217-2683 (11900)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$403.01

Value

$358.51

PnL

-$44.5

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$174.92

Value

$500

PnL

+$325.08

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

Both legs:

Down$4.922¢-$4.92

Up$17034¢+$330

Bonereaper

Invested

$330.26

Value

$507

PnL

+$176.74

Record

66%

98373-50815 (149188)

thesidehustle

Invested

$301.39

Value

$240

PnL

-$61.39

Record

54%

10142-8602 (18744)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$162.26

Value

—

PnL

-$162.26

Record

58%

59958-43771 (103729)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$215.01

Value

$287.09

PnL

+$72.08

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

Both legs:

Down$66.6344.1¢-$66.63

Up$148.3851.7¢+$138.71

std0CTR

Down

Invested

$157.97

Value

—

PnL

-$157.97

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$154.78

Value

$257

PnL

+$102.22

Record

12%

17875-132699 (150574)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$81.1

Value

$180

PnL

+$98.9

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

Both legs:

Invested

$103.55

Value

—

PnL

-$103.55

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.93

Value

—

PnL

-$44.93

Record

55%

43713-36124 (79837)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$53.3

PnL

+$24.5

Record

65%

20812-11390 (32202)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$28.91

Value

$59

PnL

+$30.09

Record

58%

50666-36801 (87467)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$38.85

PnL

+$16.1

Record

65%

3820-2062 (5882)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 29 top traders (66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4e800190...afdba2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793124900

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.6K

+$59.58

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.1K

-$494.58

GoodFallen

CTR

Down — $0

-$770.09

wzbbb

Up — $949.41

+$28.29

ply-pm0

Up — $651.89

+$45.3

almach

Up — $544.16

+$64.28

FairValueMachine

CTR

Down — $0

-$412.1

machinelearned

Up — $183.17

-$53.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Down — $0

-$456.05

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $182.31

+$61.95

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