Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$45.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares4,988

Combined PnL+$182.3

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,579

Combined PnL-$227.55

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.02	56% 29174-23025 (52199)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$23.43	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.9¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$205.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.5¢	$181.82	—	-$181.82
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$746.53	$701.63	-$44.9	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$469.32	$701.63	+$232.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$277.21	—	-$277.21
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$226.02	$467.37	+$241.35	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$182.27	$467.37	+$285.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.5¢	$43.74	—	-$43.74
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$376.82	$288.34	-$88.48	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.2¢	$260.02	$288.34	+$28.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.1¢	$116.8	—	-$116.8
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$337.58	$341.98	+$4.4	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$212.77	$341.98	+$129.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$124.82	—	-$124.82
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 77.8¢	$273.81	$298.8	+$25	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$270.38	$292.42	+$22.04	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$198.9	$292.42	+$93.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$71.48	—	-$71.48
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 84.8¢	$248.41	$244.15	-$4.26	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
machinelearned	Downavg 86.3¢	$230.45	$249.34	+$18.89	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 74.5¢	$220.09	$295.47	+$75.38	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 68¢	$176	$218.55	+$42.54	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$219.52	$188	-$31.52	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$112.82	$188	+$75.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$106.7	—	-$106.7
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 80.1¢	$221.25	$185.42	-$35.83	54% 10142-8602 (18744)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 89¢	$155.92	$159.99	+$4.07	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89¢	$142.32	$159.99	+$17.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.8¢	$13.6	—	-$13.6
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 40¢	$120	—	-$120	48% 22949-24961 (47910)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 65.5¢	$137.85	$119.98	-$17.87	62% 28121-17506 (45627)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 81¢	$81.99	$99.99	+$18	51% 16897-16488 (33385)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$6.4	—	-$6.4	59% 61841-42785 (104626)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$72.52	$73.25	+$0.73	74% 101965-36273 (138238)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$12.87	—	-$12.87	58% 59958-43771 (103729)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$36.4	$36.99	+$0.59	52% 88930-83410 (172340)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$32.95	—	-$32.95	46% 37715-44132 (81847)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$35.4	—	-$35.4	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$31.39	$35.73	+$4.34	65% 20812-11390 (32202)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,971.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.02

Record

56%

29174-23025 (52199)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,430.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$23.43

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

Both legs:

Down$1,249.0685.9¢+$205.25

Up$181.829.5¢-$181.82

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$746.53

Value

$701.63

PnL

-$44.9

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

Both legs:

Down$469.3266.9¢+$232.32

Up$277.2134.1¢-$277.21

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.02

Value

$467.37

PnL

+$241.35

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

Both legs:

Down$182.2739¢+$285.1

Up$43.744.5¢-$43.74

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$376.82

Value

$288.34

PnL

-$88.48

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

Both legs:

Down$260.0290.2¢+$28.32

Up$116.822.1¢-$116.8

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$337.58

Value

$341.98

PnL

+$4.4

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

Both legs:

Down$212.7762.2¢+$129.21

Up$124.8247¢-$124.82

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$273.81

Value

$298.8

PnL

+$25

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$270.38

Value

$292.42

PnL

+$22.04

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

Both legs:

Down$198.968¢+$93.52

Up$71.4831.2¢-$71.48

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$248.41

Value

$244.15

PnL

-$4.26

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$230.45

Value

$249.34

PnL

+$18.89

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$220.09

Value

$295.47

PnL

+$75.38

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$176

Value

$218.55

PnL

+$42.54

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$219.52

Value

$188

PnL

-$31.52

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

Both legs:

Down$112.8260¢+$75.18

Up$106.740.9¢-$106.7

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$221.25

Value

$185.42

PnL

-$35.83

Record

54%

10142-8602 (18744)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.92

Value

$159.99

PnL

+$4.07

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

Both legs:

Down$142.3289¢+$17.67

Up$13.68.8¢-$13.6

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$120

Value

—

PnL

-$120

Record

48%

22949-24961 (47910)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$137.85

Value

$119.98

PnL

-$17.87

Record

62%

28121-17506 (45627)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$81.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$18

Record

51%

16897-16488 (33385)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

—

PnL

-$6.4

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$72.52

Value

$73.25

PnL

+$0.73

Record

74%

101965-36273 (138238)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

—

PnL

-$12.87

Record

58%

59958-43771 (103729)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$36.4

Value

$36.99

PnL

+$0.59

Record

52%

88930-83410 (172340)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$32.95

Value

—

PnL

-$32.95

Record

46%

37715-44132 (81847)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$35.4

Value

—

PnL

-$35.4

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$31.39

Value

$35.73

PnL

+$4.34

Record

65%

20812-11390 (32202)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0f2ad873...55bc3e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793124000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$30.02

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$23.43

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $298.8

+$25

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$22.04

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $244.15

-$4.26

machinelearned

Down — $249.34

+$18.89

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