Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$33.02

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,770

Combined PnL+$180.17

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,339

Combined PnL-$213.19

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$29.99	56% 29174-23025 (52199)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.2¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$48.88	93% 22269-1715 (23984)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 87.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$91.82	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$208.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.9¢	$116.22	—	-$116.22
machinelearned	Upavg 93.2¢	$274.44	$265.08	-$9.37	55% 8270-6709 (14979)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$655.48	$631.27	-$24.21	54% 15086-12638 (27724)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$198.06	—	-$198.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.5¢	$457.42	$631.27	+$173.85
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$519.16	$535.52	+$16.36	49% 4856-5023 (9879)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.5¢	$463.19	$535.52	+$72.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.5¢	$55.96	—	-$55.96
NIULAI4	Upavg 94.5¢	$565.82	$595	+$29.17	77% 9217-2683 (11900)
MO mo-money	Upavg 95.9¢	$536.61	$557.19	+$20.57	55% 49869-40477 (90346)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 23.5¢	$197.24	—	-$197.24	56% 13362-10674 (24036)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$20.04	—	-$20.04	59% 61841-42785 (104626)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$8.66	—	-$8.66	62% 43491-26415 (69906)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$113.65	$99.79	-$13.86	56% 12092-9338 (21430)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.1¢	$43.6	—	-$43.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$70.05	$99.79	+$29.74
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 93.7¢	$216.14	$225	+$8.86	55% 7021-5754 (12775)
└ Up leg	Upavg 93.7¢	$210.86	$225	+$14.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 6¢	$5.28	—	-$5.28
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$147.7	$111.48	-$36.22	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$51	—	-$51
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.7¢	$96.7	$111.48	+$14.78
MayorMamdani	Upavg 98.1¢	$297.19	$303	+$5.81	55% 43713-36124 (79837)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 10¢	$153.1	—	+$112.71	48% 22949-24961 (47910)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 20.3¢	$62.87	—	-$62.87	57% 11636-8639 (20275)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 85.4¢	$91.42	$96.23	+$4.81	67% 53055-26486 (79541)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.4¢	$82.21	$96.23	+$14.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.4¢	$9.21	—	-$9.21
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 88.6¢	$150.7	$170	+$19.3	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 11.1¢	$20.45	—	-$20.45	60% 11816-7738 (19554)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.16	—	-$1.16	61% 93423-58740 (152163)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 8.5¢	$9.59	—	-$9.59	54% 10142-8602 (18744)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78.7¢	$19.84	$23.26	+$3.42	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$70.72	$90.41	+$19.69	46% 37715-44132 (81847)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 6.5¢	$5.89	—	-$5.89	52% 88930-83410 (172340)

THG.

Invested

$2,969.01

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.99

Record

56%

29174-23025 (52199)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,653.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$48.88

Record

93%

22269-1715 (23984)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,548.22

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$91.82

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

Both legs:

Up$1,43287.3¢+$208.04

Down$116.2210.9¢-$116.22

machinelearned

Invested

$274.44

Value

$265.08

PnL

-$9.37

Record

55%

8270-6709 (14979)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$655.48

Value

$631.27

PnL

-$24.21

Record

54%

15086-12638 (27724)

Both legs:

Down$198.0626.1¢-$198.06

Up$457.4272.5¢+$173.85

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$519.16

Value

$535.52

PnL

+$16.36

Record

49%

4856-5023 (9879)

Both legs:

Up$463.1986.5¢+$72.32

Down$55.9612.5¢-$55.96

NIULAI4

Invested

$565.82

Value

$595

PnL

+$29.17

Record

77%

9217-2683 (11900)

mo-money

Invested

$536.61

Value

$557.19

PnL

+$20.57

Record

55%

49869-40477 (90346)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$197.24

Value

—

PnL

-$197.24

Record

56%

13362-10674 (24036)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.04

Value

—

PnL

-$20.04

Record

59%

61841-42785 (104626)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.66

Value

—

PnL

-$8.66

Record

62%

43491-26415 (69906)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$113.65

Value

$99.79

PnL

-$13.86

Record

56%

12092-9338 (21430)

Both legs:

Down$43.620.1¢-$43.6

Up$70.0570.2¢+$29.74

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$216.14

Value

$225

PnL

+$8.86

Record

55%

7021-5754 (12775)

Both legs:

Up$210.8693.7¢+$14.14

Down$5.286¢-$5.28

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$147.7

Value

$111.48

PnL

-$36.22

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

Both legs:

Down$5125.5¢-$51

Up$96.786.7¢+$14.78

MayorMamdani

Invested

$297.19

Value

$303

PnL

+$5.81

Record

55%

43713-36124 (79837)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$153.1

Value

—

PnL

+$112.71

Record

48%

22949-24961 (47910)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.87

Value

—

PnL

-$62.87

Record

57%

11636-8639 (20275)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$91.42

Value

$96.23

PnL

+$4.81

Record

67%

53055-26486 (79541)

Both legs:

Up$82.2185.4¢+$14.02

Down$9.2110.4¢-$9.21

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$150.7

Value

$170

PnL

+$19.3

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.45

Value

—

PnL

-$20.45

Record

60%

11816-7738 (19554)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.16

Value

—

PnL

-$1.16

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.59

Value

—

PnL

-$9.59

Record

54%

10142-8602 (18744)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$23.26

PnL

+$3.42

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$70.72

Value

$90.41

PnL

+$19.69

Record

46%

37715-44132 (81847)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.89

Value

—

PnL

-$5.89

Record

52%

88930-83410 (172340)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6e4687aa...74e4d7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793123700

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.0K

+$29.99

hoodquant

Up — $2.7K

+$48.88

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$91.82

machinelearned

Up — $265.08

-$9.37

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $595

+$29.17

mo-money

Up — $557.19

GoodFallen

Down — $0

0x50f7

Down — $0