Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 70%
4 arb excluded
$13.3K
$15.26
Smart Money Signal
14 of 21 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 59% 61828-42766 (104594) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 92.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$31.72 | 56% 7373-5679 (13052) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $579.96 | $585.82 | +$5.86 | 74% 101953-36265 (138218) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $275.12 | $268.01 | -$7.11 | 54% 15086-12637 (27723) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.1¢ | $179.72 | $268.01 | +$88.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.5¢ | $95.39 | — | -$95.39 | |
SE seeeeeeb | Downavg 92¢ | $248.4 | $270 | +$21.6 | 50% 617-629 (1246) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 49¢ | $129.24 | — | -$129.24 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $123.8 | $129.21 | +$5.41 | 56% 13353-10666 (24019) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.1¢ | $89.3 | $129.21 | +$39.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.6¢ | $34.5 | — | -$34.5 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 89.8¢ | $126.49 | $128.42 | +$1.94 | 60% 11806-7731 (19537) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 99¢ | $108.9 | $110 | +$1.1 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $77.59 | $97.21 | +$19.62 | 49% 4850-5012 (9862) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $75.03 | $90.54 | +$15.51 | 55% 8262-6700 (14962) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 48% 22946-24943 (47889) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $49.68 | $60 | +$10.32 | 65% 123689-66126 (189815) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $85.6 | $60 | -$25.6 | 67% 53048-26480 (79528) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 99¢ | $59.4 | $60 | +$0.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $26.2 | — | -$26.2 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $64.22 | $68.08 | +$3.86 | 56% 12085-9328 (21413) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.2¢ | $47.82 | $68.08 | +$20.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.3¢ | $16.4 | — | -$16.4 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $4.58 | — | -$4.58 | 46% 37702-44110 (81812) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $51.73 | $62.17 | +$10.44 | 55% 7010-5749 (12759) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $74.89 | $98.98 | +$24.08 | 57% 11625-8633 (20258) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $47.52 | $48 | +$0.48 | 93% 22237-1714 (23951) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $50.36 | $68.11 | +$17.75 | 66% 123955-63798 (187753) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $32.4 | $36.43 | +$4.03 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.4¢ | $5.89 | — | -$5.89 | 54% 10141-8602 (18743) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $4.81 | — | -$4.81 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 52% 88909-83368 (172277) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3609-2800 (6409) |
Invested
$8,999
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
59%
61828-42766 (104594)
Invested
$2,057.28
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$31.72
Record
56%
7373-5679 (13052)
BoneOhioInvested
$579.96
Value
$585.82
PnL
+$5.86
Record
74%
101953-36265 (138218)
Invested
$275.12
Value
$268.01
PnL
-$7.11
Record
54%
15086-12637 (27723)
Both legs:
Invested
$248.4
Value
$270
PnL
+$21.6
Record
50%
617-629 (1246)
Invested
$129.24
Value
—
PnL
-$129.24
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
Invested
$123.8
Value
$129.21
PnL
+$5.41
Record
56%
13353-10666 (24019)
Both legs:
Invested
$126.49
Value
$128.42
PnL
+$1.94
Record
60%
11806-7731 (19537)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$108.9
Value
$110
PnL
+$1.1
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
Invested
$77.59
Value
$97.21
PnL
+$19.62
Record
49%
4850-5012 (9862)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$75.03
Value
$90.54
PnL
+$15.51
Record
55%
8262-6700 (14962)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
48%
22946-24943 (47889)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$60
PnL
+$10.32
Record
65%
123689-66126 (189815)
Invested
$85.6
Value
$60
PnL
-$25.6
Record
67%
53048-26480 (79528)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$64.22
Value
$68.08
PnL
+$3.86
Record
56%
12085-9328 (21413)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.58
Value
—
PnL
-$4.58
Record
46%
37702-44110 (81812)
Invested
$51.73
Value
$62.17
PnL
+$10.44
Record
55%
7010-5749 (12759)
Invested
$74.89
Value
$98.98
PnL
+$24.08
Record
57%
11625-8633 (20258)
Invested
$47.52
Value
$48
PnL
+$0.48
Record
93%
22237-1714 (23951)
Invested
$50.36
Value
$68.11
PnL
+$17.75
Record
66%
123955-63798 (187753)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$36.43
PnL
+$4.03
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
Invested
$5.89
Value
—
PnL
-$5.89
Record
54%
10141-8602 (18743)
Invested
$4.81
Value
—
PnL
-$4.81
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
52%
88909-83368 (172277)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3609-2800 (6409)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
wzbbb
Down — $2.1K
BoneOhio
Down — $585.82
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
seeeeeeb
Down — $270
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $128.42
MayorMamdani
Down — $110
ply-pm0
Down — $97.21