Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$12.1K
$49.36
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 59% 61828-42766 (104594) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 86.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$115.99 | 56% 7373-5679 (13052) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66.3¢ | $418.4 | $480.98 | +$62.57 | 54% 15086-12637 (27723) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.9¢ | $357.65 | $253.83 | -$103.82 | 55% 49865-40473 (90338) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $156.18 | $179.51 | +$23.33 | 67% 53048-26480 (79528) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.5¢ | $132.01 | $179.51 | +$47.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 12.2¢ | $24.17 | — | -$24.17 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 81.7¢ | $176.87 | $170.81 | -$6.06 | 60% 11806-7731 (19537) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Upavg 44¢ | $132 | — | -$132 | 48% 22946-24943 (47889) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 82.2¢ | $149.48 | $164.99 | +$15.51 | 57% 11625-8633 (20258) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 61.7¢ | $113.17 | $183.34 | +$70.17 | 55% 8262-6700 (14962) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $102.03 | $100 | -$2.03 | 56% 13353-10666 (24019) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $70 | $100 | +$30 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.9¢ | $32.03 | — | -$32.03 | |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $75.97 | $84.01 | +$8.04 | 49% 4850-5012 (9862) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 60¢ | $72 | $100 | +$28 | 56% 12085-9328 (21413) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $33.71 | $41.07 | +$7.36 | 66% 123955-63798 (187753) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $22.96 | — | -$22.96 | 54% 10141-8602 (18743) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $27.81 | $15.36 | +$3.47 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $13.23 | $21 | +$7.77 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $7.28 | — | -$7.28 | 55% 7010-5749 (12759) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 46% 37702-44110 (81812) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $3.52 | — | -$3.52 | 58% 50661-36789 (87450) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.25 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3609-2800 (6409) |
Invested
$8,997.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
59%
61828-42766 (104594)
Invested
$1,186.15
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$115.99
Record
56%
7373-5679 (13052)
Invested
$418.4
Value
$480.98
PnL
+$62.57
Record
54%
15086-12637 (27723)
Invested
$357.65
Value
$253.83
PnL
-$103.82
Record
55%
49865-40473 (90338)
Invested
$156.18
Value
$179.51
PnL
+$23.33
Record
67%
53048-26480 (79528)
Both legs:
Invested
$176.87
Value
$170.81
PnL
-$6.06
Record
60%
11806-7731 (19537)
Invested
$132
Value
—
PnL
-$132
Record
48%
22946-24943 (47889)
Invested
$149.48
Value
$164.99
PnL
+$15.51
Record
57%
11625-8633 (20258)
machinelearnedInvested
$113.17
Value
$183.34
PnL
+$70.17
Record
55%
8262-6700 (14962)
Invested
$102.03
Value
$100
PnL
-$2.03
Record
56%
13353-10666 (24019)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.97
Value
$84.01
PnL
+$8.04
Record
49%
4850-5012 (9862)
FairValueMachineInvested
$72
Value
$100
PnL
+$28
Record
56%
12085-9328 (21413)
Invested
$33.71
Value
$41.07
PnL
+$7.36
Record
66%
123955-63798 (187753)
Invested
$22.96
Value
—
PnL
-$22.96
Record
54%
10141-8602 (18743)
Invested
$27.81
Value
$15.36
PnL
+$3.47
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.23
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.77
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
Invested
$7.28
Value
—
PnL
-$7.28
Record
55%
7010-5749 (12759)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
46%
37702-44110 (81812)
Invested
$3.52
Value
—
PnL
-$3.52
Record
58%
50661-36789 (87450)
Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3609-2800 (6409)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
wzbbb
Down — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $480.98
mo-money
Down — $253.83
std0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $170.81
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
Down — $164.99
machinelearned
Down — $183.34
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded