Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares9,788

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,598

Combined PnL-$459.31

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$24.55	74% 101953-36265 (138218)
MO mo-money	Upavg 58.7¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$754.1	55% 49865-40473 (90338)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$308.65	54% 15086-12637 (27723)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$639.1	$1.6K	+$970.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.3¢	$661.72	—	-$661.72
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$48.1	49% 4850-5012 (9862)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$742.37	$1.2K	+$494.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.3¢	$446.14	—	-$446.14
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$788.15	$1.4K	+$593.72	56% 7373-5679 (13052)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$403.16	$1.4K	+$978.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$384.98	—	-$384.98
HO hoodquant	Upavg 95.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$70.68	93% 22237-1714 (23951)
NIULAI4	Upavg 64.5¢	$967.37	$1.5K	+$532.58	77% 9214-2680 (11894)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$779.63	$1.1K	+$271.89	56% 13353-10666 (24019)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$409.05	$1.1K	+$642.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$370.58	—	-$370.58
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$973.08	$1.1K	+$132.7	57% 69047-52548 (121595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.7¢	$472.83	—	-$472.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$500.25	$1.1K	+$605.54
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 21.6¢	$338.59	—	-$338.59	55% 8262-6700 (14962)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 55.3¢	$414.78	$571.97	+$157.19	57% 11625-8633 (20258)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$392.49	$410.26	+$17.77	56% 12085-9328 (21413)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$158.14	$410.26	+$252.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$234.35	—	-$234.35
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$212.56	$314.6	+$102.04	63% 50706-29951 (80657)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$209.18	$314.6	+$105.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$3.38	—	-$3.38
Atomforge	Upavg 85.2¢	$351.06	$402.72	+$51.66	65% 3816-2060 (5876)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$232.39	$292.04	+$59.65	60% 11806-7731 (19537)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.6¢	$182.96	$292.04	+$109.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.5¢	$49.43	—	-$49.43
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 63.4¢	$190.82	$205.91	+$15.09	67% 53048-26480 (79528)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$121.55	—	-$121.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.6¢	$69.27	$205.91	+$136.64
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 57.1¢	$195.65	$259.19	+$63.54	57% 10011-7505 (17516)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$114.11	$120.35	+$8.69	55% 7010-5749 (12759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$78.13	$120.35	+$41.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.7¢	$32.74	—	-$32.74
MayorMamdani	Upavg 75.5¢	$118	$149	+$31	55% 43689-36107 (79796)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 69¢	$106.41	$120	+$13.59	54% 10141-8602 (18743)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 16.5¢	$25.54	$34.53	+$8.99	52% 88909-83368 (172277)
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.5¢	$16.18	—	-$16.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.1¢	$9.36	$34.53	+$25.17
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$38.98	—	-$38.98	65% 123689-66126 (189815)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$26.38	$58.1	+$31.72	46% 37702-44110 (81812)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$35.84	—	-$35.84	66% 123955-63798 (187753)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$27.4	—	-$27.4	65% 20770-11363 (32133)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,430.25

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.55

Record

74%

101953-36265 (138218)

mo-money

Invested

$1,534.38

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$754.1

Record

55%

49865-40473 (90338)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,300.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$308.65

Record

54%

15086-12637 (27723)

Both legs:

Up$639.139.7¢+$970.38

Down$661.7257.3¢-$661.72

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,188.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$48.1

Record

49%

4850-5012 (9862)

Both legs:

Up$742.3760¢+$494.23

Down$446.1434.3¢-$446.14

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$788.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$593.72

Record

56%

7373-5679 (13052)

Both legs:

Up$403.1629.2¢+$978.71

Down$384.9846.3¢-$384.98

hoodquant

Invested

$1,650.47

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$70.68

Record

93%

22237-1714 (23951)

NIULAI4

Invested

$967.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$532.58

Record

77%

9214-2680 (11894)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$779.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$271.89

Record

56%

13353-10666 (24019)

Both legs:

Up$409.0538.9¢+$642.47

Down$370.5854.7¢-$370.58

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$973.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$132.7

Record

57%

69047-52548 (121595)

Both legs:

Down$472.8378.7¢-$472.83

Up$500.2545.2¢+$605.54

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$338.59

Value

—

PnL

-$338.59

Record

55%

8262-6700 (14962)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$414.78

Value

$571.97

PnL

+$157.19

Record

57%

11625-8633 (20258)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$392.49

Value

$410.26

PnL

+$17.77

Record

56%

12085-9328 (21413)

Both legs:

Up$158.1438.5¢+$252.12

Down$234.3553.7¢-$234.35

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$212.56

Value

$314.6

PnL

+$102.04

Record

63%

50706-29951 (80657)

Both legs:

Up$209.1866.5¢+$105.42

Down$3.381¢-$3.38

Atomforge

Invested

$351.06

Value

$402.72

PnL

+$51.66

Record

65%

3816-2060 (5876)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$232.39

Value

$292.04

PnL

+$59.65

Record

60%

11806-7731 (19537)

Both legs:

Up$182.9662.6¢+$109.09

Down$49.4332.5¢-$49.43

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$190.82

Value

$205.91

PnL

+$15.09

Record

67%

53048-26480 (79528)

Both legs:

Down$121.5563.4¢-$121.55

Up$69.2733.6¢+$136.64

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$195.65

Value

$259.19

PnL

+$63.54

Record

57%

10011-7505 (17516)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$114.11

Value

$120.35

PnL

+$8.69

Record

55%

7010-5749 (12759)

Both legs:

Up$78.1364.9¢+$41.43

Down$32.7427.7¢-$32.74

MayorMamdani

Invested

$118

Value

$149

PnL

+$31

Record

55%

43689-36107 (79796)

thesidehustle

Invested

$106.41

Value

$120

PnL

+$13.59

Record

54%

10141-8602 (18743)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$25.54

Value

$34.53

PnL

+$8.99

Record

52%

88909-83368 (172277)

Both legs:

Down$16.1816.5¢-$16.18

Up$9.3627.1¢+$25.17

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.98

Value

—

PnL

-$38.98

Record

65%

123689-66126 (189815)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$26.38

Value

$58.1

PnL

+$31.72

Record

46%

37702-44110 (81812)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.84

Value

—

PnL

-$35.84

Record

66%

123955-63798 (187753)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.4

Value

—

PnL

-$27.4

Record

65%

20770-11363 (32133)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5d1469b5...99c7e9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793122800

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $2.5K

+$24.55

mo-money

Up — $2.3K

+$754.1

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$70.68

NIULAI4

Up — $1.5K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0