Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 81%
2 arb excluded
$3.4K
$170.15
Smart Money Signal
13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 96.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$14.91 | 56% 7373-5679 (13052) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 90.3¢ | $285.94 | $316.6 | +$30.66 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $208.81 | $154.95 | -$53.86 | 54% 15086-12637 (27723) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.1¢ | $116.38 | $154.95 | +$38.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.1¢ | $92.43 | — | -$92.43 | |
ST std0 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $97.9 | $110 | +$12.1 | 67% 53048-26480 (79528) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $78.17 | $98.69 | +$20.52 | 55% 7010-5749 (12759) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $81.6 | $90 | +$8.4 | 49% 4850-5012 (9862) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 73¢ | $109.56 | $150.08 | +$40.52 | 56% 57382-44326 (101708) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $67.66 | $81.55 | +$13.89 | 55% 8262-6700 (14962) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $54.88 | $44 | -$10.88 | 60% 11806-7731 (19537) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73¢ | $32.12 | $44 | +$11.88 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23¢ | $22.76 | — | -$22.76 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 70¢ | $70 | $100 | +$30 | 56% 12085-9328 (21413) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $46.54 | $50.58 | +$4.04 | 66% 123955-63798 (187753) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $47.26 | $67.56 | +$20.3 | 57% 11625-8633 (20258) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $32.97 | $36.42 | +$3.46 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $17.1 | — | -$17.1 | 56% 13353-10666 (24019) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $60 | +$16.2 | 57% 10011-7505 (17516) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.2¢ | $23.83 | — | -$23.83 | 54% 10141-8602 (18743) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $16.47 | $18.51 | +$2.04 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $5.96 | — | -$5.96 | 52% 88909-83368 (172277) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3609-2800 (6409) |
Invested
$2,041.53
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$14.91
Record
56%
7373-5679 (13052)
Invested
$285.94
Value
$316.6
PnL
+$30.66
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
Invested
$208.81
Value
$154.95
PnL
-$53.86
Record
54%
15086-12637 (27723)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.9
Value
$110
PnL
+$12.1
Record
67%
53048-26480 (79528)
Invested
$78.17
Value
$98.69
PnL
+$20.52
Record
55%
7010-5749 (12759)
Invested
$81.6
Value
$90
PnL
+$8.4
Record
49%
4850-5012 (9862)
Invested
$109.56
Value
$150.08
PnL
+$40.52
Record
56%
57382-44326 (101708)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$67.66
Value
$81.55
PnL
+$13.89
Record
55%
8262-6700 (14962)
Invested
$54.88
Value
$44
PnL
-$10.88
Record
60%
11806-7731 (19537)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$70
Value
$100
PnL
+$30
Record
56%
12085-9328 (21413)
Invested
$46.54
Value
$50.58
PnL
+$4.04
Record
66%
123955-63798 (187753)
Invested
$47.26
Value
$67.56
PnL
+$20.3
Record
57%
11625-8633 (20258)
Invested
$32.97
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$3.46
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
Invested
$17.1
Value
—
PnL
-$17.1
Record
56%
13353-10666 (24019)
Invested
$43.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$16.2
Record
57%
10011-7505 (17516)
Invested
$23.83
Value
—
PnL
-$23.83
Record
54%
10141-8602 (18743)
Invested
$16.47
Value
$18.51
PnL
+$2.04
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
Invested
$5.96
Value
—
PnL
-$5.96
Record
52%
88909-83368 (172277)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3609-2800 (6409)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $2.1K
uninformedfloww
Down — $316.6
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
Down — $110
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $98.69
ply-pm0
Down — $90
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $150.08
machinelearned
Down — $81.55
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
Down — $100