Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$543.61

Smart Money Signal

22 of 26 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,198

Combined PnL+$642.76

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$99.16

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$395.89	57% 69047-52548 (121595)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$719.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.8¢	$323.2	—	-$323.2
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$16.61	54% 15086-12637 (27723)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.8¢	$664.9	$711.42	+$46.52	56% 13353-10666 (24019)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 66¢	$621.7	$623.24	+$1.54	49% 4850-5012 (9862)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 54.6¢	$561.33	$531.04	-$30.29	56% 7373-5679 (13052)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 64.2¢	$404.19	$482.36	+$78.17	57% 11625-8633 (20258)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$349.18	$415.7	+$66.51	55% 49865-40473 (90338)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$286.83	$415.7	+$128.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$62.35	—	-$62.35
FairValueMachine	Upavg 65.6¢	$413.54	$378.79	-$34.75	56% 12085-9328 (21413)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 68.2¢	$237.84	$300	+$62.16	54% 10141-8602 (18743)
machinelearned	Upavg 64.1¢	$185.56	$250.54	+$64.98	55% 8262-6700 (14962)
ST std0	Upavg 57.1¢	$191.09	$197.03	+$5.94	67% 53048-26480 (79528)
NIULAI4	Upavg 68¢	$149.63	$166	+$16.37	77% 9214-2680 (11894)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48¢	$150.82	$314.2	+$163.38	58% 50661-36789 (87450)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 41.2¢	$123.6	$300	+$176.4	48% 22946-24943 (47889)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 99¢	$151.34	$150.08	-$1.26	56% 57382-44326 (101708)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 31.2¢	$72.59	—	-$72.59	46% 37702-44110 (81812)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 99¢	$67.84	$67	-$0.84	65% 123689-66126 (189815)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 92.1¢	$65.54	$65.33	-$0.21	52% 88909-83368 (172277)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 44¢	$44.17	$100.39	+$56.22	58% 59948-43760 (103708)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$38.6	$45.92	+$9.14	61% 93399-58707 (152106)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 85.4¢	$40.56	$42.48	+$1.92	66% 123955-63798 (187753)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$21.94	—	-$21.94	64% 57270-32043 (89313)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$25.68	$36.76	+$11.08	51% 16888-16485 (33373)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 82.8¢	$21.77	$16.01	-$5.76	65% 3816-2060 (5876)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 68¢	$5.6	$8.24	+$2.64	65% 20770-11363 (32133)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$1,467.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$395.89

Record

57%

69047-52548 (121595)

Both legs:

Up$1,144.6861.4¢+$719.09

Down$323.226.8¢-$323.2

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,389.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$16.61

Record

54%

15086-12637 (27723)

GoodFallen

Invested

$664.9

Value

$711.42

PnL

+$46.52

Record

56%

13353-10666 (24019)

ply-pm0

Invested

$621.7

Value

$623.24

PnL

+$1.54

Record

49%

4850-5012 (9862)

wzbbb

Invested

$561.33

Value

$531.04

PnL

-$30.29

Record

56%

7373-5679 (13052)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$404.19

Value

$482.36

PnL

+$78.17

Record

57%

11625-8633 (20258)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$349.18

Value

$415.7

PnL

+$66.51

Record

55%

49865-40473 (90338)

Both legs:

Up$286.8369¢+$128.87

Down$62.3515¢-$62.35

FairValueMachine

Invested

$413.54

Value

$378.79

PnL

-$34.75

Record

56%

12085-9328 (21413)

thesidehustle

Invested

$237.84

Value

$300

PnL

+$62.16

Record

54%

10141-8602 (18743)

machinelearned

Invested

$185.56

Value

$250.54

PnL

+$64.98

Record

55%

8262-6700 (14962)

std0

Invested

$191.09

Value

$197.03

PnL

+$5.94

Record

67%

53048-26480 (79528)

NIULAI4

Invested

$149.63

Value

$166

PnL

+$16.37

Record

77%

9214-2680 (11894)

PBot-6

Invested

$150.82

Value

$314.2

PnL

+$163.38

Record

58%

50661-36789 (87450)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$123.6

Value

$300

PnL

+$176.4

Record

48%

22946-24943 (47889)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$151.34

Value

$150.08

PnL

-$1.26

Record

56%

57382-44326 (101708)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.59

Value

—

PnL

-$72.59

Record

46%

37702-44110 (81812)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$67.84

Value

$67

PnL

-$0.84

Record

65%

123689-66126 (189815)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$65.54

Value

$65.33

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

88909-83368 (172277)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$44.17

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$56.22

Record

58%

59948-43760 (103708)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$38.6

Value

$45.92

PnL

+$9.14

Record

61%

93399-58707 (152106)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$40.56

Value

$42.48

PnL

+$1.92

Record

66%

123955-63798 (187753)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.94

Value

—

PnL

-$21.94

Record

64%

57270-32043 (89313)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$25.68

Value

$36.76

PnL

+$11.08

Record

51%

16888-16485 (33373)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$21.77

Value

$16.01

PnL

-$5.76

Record

65%

3816-2060 (5876)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$2.64

Record

65%

20770-11363 (32133)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 26 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfc2d0c80...46a0c5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793122200

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$395.89

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.4K

+$16.61

GoodFallen

Up — $711.42

+$46.52

ply-pm0

Up — $623.24

+$1.54

wzbbb

Up — $531.04

-$30.29

EZTRADENL2

Up — $482.36

+$78.17

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$66.51

FairValueMachine

Up — $378.79

-$34.75

thesidehustle

Up — $300

+$62.16

machinelearned

Up — $250.54

+$64.98

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