Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 29 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares9,970

Combined PnL+$734.3

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,500

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$57.32	56% 3609-2800 (6409)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 49.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$50.79	54% 15086-12637 (27723)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 53.6¢	$966.06	$1.3K	+$299.55	56% 7373-5679 (13052)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 60.9¢	$981.4	$858.87	-$122.53	57% 69047-52548 (121595)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 53.2¢	$707.28	—	-$707.28	56% 13353-10666 (24019)
ST std0CTR	Upavg 60.5¢	$447.87	—	-$447.87	67% 53048-26480 (79528)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 42.4¢	$349.96	—	-$349.96	49% 4850-5012 (9862)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 53.8¢	$318.64	—	-$318.64	56% 12085-9328 (21413)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 66¢	$319.26	$299.99	-$19.28	51% 16888-16485 (33373)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$218.6	$253.25	+$34.64	55% 8262-6700 (14962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$134	—	-$134
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.4¢	$84.6	$253.25	+$168.64
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$327.08	$316.38	-$8.25	60% 11806-7731 (19537)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.4¢	$170.1	—	-$171.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$152.92	$316.38	+$163.46
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$211.79	$251.36	+$39.57	55% 7010-5749 (12759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$120.88	—	-$120.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.2¢	$90.91	$251.36	+$160.45
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 70.9¢	$303.51	—	-$303.51	64% 57270-32043 (89313)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 57¢	$182.03	—	-$182.03	55% 49865-40473 (90338)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 55¢	$219.7	$399.15	+$179.45	57% 10011-7505 (17516)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$113.92	$143.15	+$29.23	66% 123955-63798 (187753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.1¢	$84.81	—	-$84.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$29.11	$143.15	+$114.04
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 98¢	$146.18	$121	-$25.18	65% 123689-66126 (189815)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$115.81	$102.73	-$13.08	52% 88909-83368 (172277)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.9¢	$22.5	$102.73	+$80.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.8¢	$93.31	—	-$93.31
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 48.1¢	$124.48	$258.74	+$134.26	57% 11625-8633 (20258)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Upavg 81¢	$218.7	—	-$218.7	50% 617-629 (1246)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 31.1¢	$120.2	—	-$120.2	54% 10141-8602 (18743)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$48.63	$49.84	+$1.21	63% 50706-29951 (80657)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 23.9¢	$46.05	$192.89	+$146.84	58% 12451-9113 (21564)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$50.78	—	-$49.35	65% 20770-11363 (32133)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 82.8¢	$126.16	—	-$126.16	64% 39585-22576 (62161)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,995

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$57.32

Record

56%

3609-2800 (6409)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,338.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$50.79

Record

54%

15086-12637 (27723)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$966.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$299.55

Record

56%

7373-5679 (13052)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$981.4

Value

$858.87

PnL

-$122.53

Record

57%

69047-52548 (121595)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$707.28

Value

—

PnL

-$707.28

Record

56%

13353-10666 (24019)

std0CTR

Invested

$447.87

Value

—

PnL

-$447.87

Record

67%

53048-26480 (79528)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$349.96

Value

—

PnL

-$349.96

Record

49%

4850-5012 (9862)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$318.64

Value

—

PnL

-$318.64

Record

56%

12085-9328 (21413)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$319.26

Value

$299.99

PnL

-$19.28

Record

51%

16888-16485 (33373)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$218.6

Value

$253.25

PnL

+$34.64

Record

55%

8262-6700 (14962)

Both legs:

Up$13453.6¢-$134

Down$84.633.4¢+$168.64

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$327.08

Value

$316.38

PnL

-$8.25

Record

60%

11806-7731 (19537)

Both legs:

Up$170.181.4¢-$171.72

Down$152.9248.3¢+$163.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$211.79

Value

$251.36

PnL

+$39.57

Record

55%

7010-5749 (12759)

Both legs:

Up$120.8862¢-$120.88

Down$90.9136.2¢+$160.45

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$303.51

Value

—

PnL

-$303.51

Record

64%

57270-32043 (89313)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$182.03

Value

—

PnL

-$182.03

Record

55%

49865-40473 (90338)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$219.7

Value

$399.15

PnL

+$179.45

Record

57%

10011-7505 (17516)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$113.92

Value

$143.15

PnL

+$29.23

Record

66%

123955-63798 (187753)

Both legs:

Up$84.8172.1¢-$84.81

Down$29.1120.3¢+$114.04

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$146.18

Value

$121

PnL

-$25.18

Record

65%

123689-66126 (189815)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$115.81

Value

$102.73

PnL

-$13.08

Record

52%

88909-83368 (172277)

Both legs:

Down$22.521.9¢+$80.23

Up$93.3172.8¢-$93.31

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$124.48

Value

$258.74

PnL

+$134.26

Record

57%

11625-8633 (20258)

seeeeeebCTR

Invested

$218.7

Value

—

PnL

-$218.7

Record

50%

617-629 (1246)

thesidehustleCTR

Invested

$120.2

Value

—

PnL

-$120.2

Record

54%

10141-8602 (18743)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$48.63

Value

$49.84

PnL

+$1.21

Record

63%

50706-29951 (80657)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$46.05

Value

$192.89

PnL

+$146.84

Record

58%

12451-9113 (21564)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$50.78

Value

—

PnL

-$49.35

Record

65%

20770-11363 (32133)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$126.16

Value

—

PnL

-$126.16

Record

64%

39585-22576 (62161)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 29 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x19751788...50362f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793121900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$57.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.4K

+$50.79

wzbbb

Down — $1.3K

+$299.55

uninformedfloww

Down — $858.87

GoodFallen

Up — $0

std0

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

gansinimen

Down — $299.99

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded