Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 57%
8 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$631.66
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wintermute-SportCTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $411 | — | -$411 | 59% 75-53 (128) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 44.3¢ | $413.99 | — | -$413.99 | 58% 50649-36785 (87434) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $403.86 | $444.92 | +$41.07 | 56% 13344-10656 (24000) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.7¢ | $160.63 | — | -$160.63 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.7¢ | $243.23 | $444.92 | +$201.69 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 57.3¢ | $417.11 | $497.05 | +$79.94 | 56% 7359-5668 (13027) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.5¢ | $132.43 | — | -$132.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $284.68 | $497.05 | +$212.37 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.97 | 93% 22201-1713 (23914) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 50.5¢ | $165.4 | $180 | +$14.6 | 64% 57269-32043 (89312) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $856.49 | $865.14 | +$8.65 | 56% 29164-23025 (52189) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 48% 22935-24929 (47864) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $200.13 | $322.41 | +$122.28 | 56% 12074-9320 (21394) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.4¢ | $168.97 | $322.41 | +$153.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $31.16 | — | -$31.16 | |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $184.02 | $165.99 | -$18.03 | 67% 53042-26468 (79510) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.8¢ | $52.19 | — | -$52.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.4¢ | $131.83 | $165.99 | +$34.16 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $147.76 | $145.64 | -$2.11 | 49% 4841-5002 (9843) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.7¢ | $42.38 | — | -$42.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.4¢ | $105.38 | $145.64 | +$40.26 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $95.27 | $90 | -$5.27 | 65% 123648-66111 (189759) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6.6¢ | $9.95 | — | -$9.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94.8¢ | $85.32 | $90 | +$4.68 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $126.86 | $194.89 | +$68.03 | 55% 8253-6690 (14943) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.9¢ | $107.01 | $194.89 | +$87.88 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.5¢ | $19.86 | — | -$19.86 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $73 | $100 | +$27 | 51% 16882-16482 (33364) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72¢ | $72 | $100 | +$28 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 45¢ | $89.6 | $199.18 | +$109.58 | 57% 11614-8625 (20239) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $47.56 | $48.42 | +$0.86 | 66% 123902-63779 (187681) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92.6¢ | $52.89 | $48 | -$4.89 | 52% 88881-83328 (172209) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 40.8¢ | $47.77 | $117.05 | +$69.28 | 60% 11798-7720 (19518) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.1¢ | $26.46 | — | -$26.46 | 55% 6998-5742 (12740) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.1¢ | $80.94 | — | -$5.3 | 61% 93357-58685 (152042) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $0.55 | — | -$0.55 | 57% 68891-52429 (121320) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $6.84 | $9.91 | +$3.07 | 65% 3812-2058 (5870) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $11.7 | $0 | +$16.52 | 65% 20711-11321 (32032) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3604-2795 (6399) |
Invested
$411
Value
—
PnL
-$411
Record
59%
75-53 (128)
Invested
$413.99
Value
—
PnL
-$413.99
Record
58%
50649-36785 (87434)
Invested
$403.86
Value
$444.92
PnL
+$41.07
Record
56%
13344-10656 (24000)
Both legs:
Invested
$417.11
Value
$497.05
PnL
+$79.94
Record
56%
7359-5668 (13027)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,085.83
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.97
Record
93%
22201-1713 (23914)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$165.4
Value
$180
PnL
+$14.6
Record
64%
57269-32043 (89312)
Invested
$856.49
Value
$865.14
PnL
+$8.65
Record
56%
29164-23025 (52189)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
22935-24929 (47864)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$200.13
Value
$322.41
PnL
+$122.28
Record
56%
12074-9320 (21394)
Both legs:
Invested
$184.02
Value
$165.99
PnL
-$18.03
Record
67%
53042-26468 (79510)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.76
Value
$145.64
PnL
-$2.11
Record
49%
4841-5002 (9843)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.27
Value
$90
PnL
-$5.27
Record
65%
123648-66111 (189759)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$126.86
Value
$194.89
PnL
+$68.03
Record
55%
8253-6690 (14943)
Both legs:
Invested
$73
Value
$100
PnL
+$27
Record
51%
16882-16482 (33364)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.6
Value
$199.18
PnL
+$109.58
Record
57%
11614-8625 (20239)
Invested
$47.56
Value
$48.42
PnL
+$0.86
Record
66%
123902-63779 (187681)
Invested
$52.89
Value
$48
PnL
-$4.89
Record
52%
88881-83328 (172209)
Invested
$47.77
Value
$117.05
PnL
+$69.28
Record
60%
11798-7720 (19518)
Invested
$26.46
Value
—
PnL
-$26.46
Record
55%
6998-5742 (12740)
Invested
$80.94
Value
—
PnL
-$5.3
Record
61%
93357-58685 (152042)
Invested
$0.55
Value
—
PnL
-$0.55
Record
57%
68891-52429 (121320)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$6.84
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$3.07
Record
65%
3812-2058 (5870)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$0
PnL
+$16.52
Record
65%
20711-11321 (32032)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3604-2795 (6399)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Wintermute-Sport
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $180
THG.
Down — $865.14
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
ARBArbitrage — excluded