Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$46.58
Smart Money Signal
18 of 23 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.9¢ | $919.62 | $939.52 | +$19.9 | 93% 22201-1713 (23914) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 80¢ | $464.74 | $425.51 | -$39.23 | 56% 7359-5668 (13027) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 67.7¢ | $324.42 | $387.93 | +$63.51 | 56% 13344-10656 (24000) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.8¢ | $361.7 | $269.4 | -$92.3 | 64% 57269-32043 (89312) |
ST std0 | Downavg 92.6¢ | $179.91 | $148.36 | -$31.55 | 67% 53042-26468 (79510) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 79.7¢ | $116.1 | $130.09 | +$13.99 | 55% 6998-5742 (12740) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $118.63 | $120 | +$1.37 | 49% 4841-5002 (9843) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 61.7¢ | $84.22 | $107.5 | +$23.29 | 55% 8253-6690 (14943) |
 ohioism | Downavg 75.9¢ | $87.4 | $115.17 | +$27.77 | 64% 39575-22571 (62146) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $84.98 | $69.13 | -$15.86 | 60% 11798-7720 (19518) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $66.46 | $75.98 | +$9.52 | 66% 123902-63779 (187681) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $60.21 | $60.65 | +$5.98 | 61% 93357-58685 (152042) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $111.5 | $34.29 | -$77.21 | 57% 11614-8625 (20239) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83¢ | $28.44 | $34.29 | +$5.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $83.05 | — | -$83.05 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $41.39 | — | -$41.39 | 57% 68891-52429 (121320) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $24.48 | $48 | +$23.52 | 55% 23495-19017 (42512) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $18.29 | $23.05 | +$4.76 | 56% 12074-9320 (21394) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $16.41 | $19.94 | +$3.53 | 65% 20711-11321 (32032) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.8¢ | $6.84 | — | -$6.84 | 46% 37691-44086 (81777) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $15.9 | $10 | -$5.9 | 65% 123648-66111 (189759) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $7.8 | — | -$7.8 | 51% 19610-18785 (38395) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $6.86 | $14 | +$7.14 | 58% 50649-36785 (87434) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $9.74 | — | -$9.74 | 52% 88881-83328 (172209) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.21 | — | -$0.21 | 77% 9213-2676 (11889) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3604-2795 (6399) |
Invested
$919.62
Value
$939.52
PnL
+$19.9
Record
93%
22201-1713 (23914)
Invested
$464.74
Value
$425.51
PnL
-$39.23
Record
56%
7359-5668 (13027)
Invested
$324.42
Value
$387.93
PnL
+$63.51
Record
56%
13344-10656 (24000)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$361.7
Value
$269.4
PnL
-$92.3
Record
64%
57269-32043 (89312)
Invested
$179.91
Value
$148.36
PnL
-$31.55
Record
67%
53042-26468 (79510)
Invested
$116.1
Value
$130.09
PnL
+$13.99
Record
55%
6998-5742 (12740)
Invested
$118.63
Value
$120
PnL
+$1.37
Record
49%
4841-5002 (9843)
machinelearnedInvested
$84.22
Value
$107.5
PnL
+$23.29
Record
55%
8253-6690 (14943)
ohioismInvested
$87.4
Value
$115.17
PnL
+$27.77
Record
64%
39575-22571 (62146)
Invested
$84.98
Value
$69.13
PnL
-$15.86
Record
60%
11798-7720 (19518)
Invested
$66.46
Value
$75.98
PnL
+$9.52
Record
66%
123902-63779 (187681)
Invested
$60.21
Value
$60.65
PnL
+$5.98
Record
61%
93357-58685 (152042)
Invested
$111.5
Value
$34.29
PnL
-$77.21
Record
57%
11614-8625 (20239)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.39
Value
—
PnL
-$41.39
Record
57%
68891-52429 (121320)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$48
PnL
+$23.52
Record
55%
23495-19017 (42512)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$18.29
Value
$23.05
PnL
+$4.76
Record
56%
12074-9320 (21394)
Invested
$16.41
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$3.53
Record
65%
20711-11321 (32032)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$6.84
Value
—
PnL
-$6.84
Record
46%
37691-44086 (81777)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$10
PnL
-$5.9
Record
65%
123648-66111 (189759)
Invested
$7.8
Value
—
PnL
-$7.8
Record
51%
19610-18785 (38395)
Invested
$6.86
Value
$14
PnL
+$7.14
Record
58%
50649-36785 (87434)
Invested
$9.74
Value
—
PnL
-$9.74
Record
52%
88881-83328 (172209)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$0.21
Value
—
PnL
-$0.21
Record
77%
9213-2676 (11889)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3604-2795 (6399)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $939.52
wzbbb
Down — $425.51
GoodFallen
Down — $387.93
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $269.4
std0
Down — $148.36
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $130.09
ply-pm0
Down — $120
machinelearned
Down — $107.5
ohioism
Down — $115.17
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $69.13