Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$229.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 16 top traders (69%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,355

Combined PnL+$128

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares601

Combined PnL-$357.58

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$29.87	56% 29164-23025 (52189)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$188.44	56% 7359-5668 (13027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$469.59	$1.4K	+$919.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.5¢	$731.06	—	-$731.06
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$987.36	$954.7	-$32.67	56% 13344-10656 (24000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$655.31	—	-$655.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.8¢	$332.06	$954.7	+$622.64
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$929.34	$901.42	-$27.92	49% 4841-5002 (9843)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$415.24	—	-$415.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$514.1	$901.42	+$387.32
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$486.95	$692.59	+$205.65	56% 12074-9320 (21394)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$228.24	$692.59	+$464.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$258.7	—	-$258.7
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$258.48	$187.69	-$70.79	55% 8253-6690 (14943)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$123.06	—	-$123.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.2¢	$135.42	$187.69	+$52.26
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$459.28	$462.4	+$3.13	55% 23495-19017 (42512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$306.53	$462.4	+$155.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$152.75	—	-$152.75
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$412.78	$398.14	-$14.63	60% 11798-7720 (19518)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.1¢	$235.13	$398.14	+$163.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$177.65	—	-$177.65
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$452.64	$150	-$302.64	77% 9213-2676 (11889)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$326.64	—	-$326.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$126	$150	+$24
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$266.93	$334.56	+$67.62	55% 6998-5742 (12740)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$137.95	$334.56	+$196.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$128.98	—	-$128.98
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$153.01	$182.4	+$29.4	64% 57269-32043 (89312)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$116.8	—	-$116.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.8¢	$36.21	$182.4	+$146.2
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 66.9¢	$273.36	—	-$273.36	57% 68891-52429 (121320)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 36.2¢	$130.55	$206.09	+$75.54	51% 16882-16482 (33364)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.2¢	$74.56	$206.09	+$131.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$55.99	—	-$55.99
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 69.3¢	$234.7	$72.13	-$162.57	57% 11614-8625 (20239)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.3¢	$203.98	—	-$203.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$30.72	$72.13	+$41.41
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$152.76	$163.02	+$10.26	67% 53042-26468 (79510)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$53.41	$163.02	+$109.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$99.35	—	-$99.35
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$136.53	$137.91	+$1.38	93% 22201-1713 (23914)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 28.4¢	$32.12	—	-$32.12	57% 9998-7502 (17500)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$36	—	-$36	65% 20711-11321 (32032)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$30.34	$57.39	+$27.05	58% 59935-43752 (103687)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96¢	$53.61	$55	+$1.39	55% 43651-36077 (79728)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$21.97	$32.32	+$10.35	66% 123902-63779 (187681)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 27.6¢	$16.1	—	-$16.1	65% 3812-2058 (5870)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$11.11	$32.21	+$21.1	52% 88881-83328 (172209)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 27.1¢	$4.8	$17.67	+$12.87	65% 123648-66111 (189759)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.99	$11.4	+$7.41	46% 37691-44086 (81777)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,957.13

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.87

Record

56%

29164-23025 (52189)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,200.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$188.44

Record

56%

7359-5668 (13027)

Both legs:

Down$469.5933.8¢+$919.5

Up$731.0668.5¢-$731.06

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$987.36

Value

$954.7

PnL

-$32.67

Record

56%

13344-10656 (24000)

Both legs:

Up$655.3160.5¢-$655.31

Down$332.0634.8¢+$622.64

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$929.34

Value

$901.42

PnL

-$27.92

Record

49%

4841-5002 (9843)

Both legs:

Up$415.2440.1¢-$415.24

Down$514.157¢+$387.32

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$486.95

Value

$692.59

PnL

+$205.65

Record

56%

12074-9320 (21394)

Both legs:

Down$228.2433¢+$464.35

Up$258.762.1¢-$258.7

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$258.48

Value

$187.69

PnL

-$70.79

Record

55%

8253-6690 (14943)

Both legs:

Up$123.0620.2¢-$123.06

Down$135.4272.2¢+$52.26

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$459.28

Value

$462.4

PnL

+$3.13

Record

55%

23495-19017 (42512)

Both legs:

Down$306.5366.3¢+$155.88

Up$152.7558.5¢-$152.75

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$412.78

Value

$398.14

PnL

-$14.63

Record

60%

11798-7720 (19518)

Both legs:

Down$235.1359.1¢+$163.02

Up$177.6568.7¢-$177.65

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$452.64

Value

$150

PnL

-$302.64

Record

77%

9213-2676 (11889)

Both legs:

Up$326.6467.8¢-$326.64

Down$12684¢+$24

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$266.93

Value

$334.56

PnL

+$67.62

Record

55%

6998-5742 (12740)

Both legs:

Down$137.9541.2¢+$196.6

Up$128.9851.8¢-$128.98

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$153.01

Value

$182.4

PnL

+$29.4

Record

64%

57269-32043 (89312)

Both legs:

Up$116.847.1¢-$116.8

Down$36.2119.8¢+$146.2

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$273.36

Value

—

PnL

-$273.36

Record

57%

68891-52429 (121320)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.55

Value

$206.09

PnL

+$75.54

Record

51%

16882-16482 (33364)

Both legs:

Down$74.5636.2¢+$131.53

Up$55.9928¢-$55.99

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$234.7

Value

$72.13

PnL

-$162.57

Record

57%

11614-8625 (20239)

Both legs:

Up$203.9869.3¢-$203.98

Down$30.7242.6¢+$41.41

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$152.76

Value

$163.02

PnL

+$10.26

Record

67%

53042-26468 (79510)

Both legs:

Down$53.4132.8¢+$109.61

Up$99.3564.9¢-$99.35

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$136.53

Value

$137.91

PnL

+$1.38

Record

93%

22201-1713 (23914)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$32.12

Value

—

PnL

-$32.12

Record

57%

9998-7502 (17500)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

—

PnL

-$36

Record

65%

20711-11321 (32032)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$30.34

Value

$57.39

PnL

+$27.05

Record

58%

59935-43752 (103687)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$53.61

Value

$55

PnL

+$1.39

Record

55%

43651-36077 (79728)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$21.97

Value

$32.32

PnL

+$10.35

Record

66%

123902-63779 (187681)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$16.1

Value

—

PnL

-$16.1

Record

65%

3812-2058 (5870)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.11

Value

$32.21

PnL

+$21.1

Record

52%

88881-83328 (172209)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$12.87

Record

65%

123648-66111 (189759)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$3.99

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$7.41

Record

46%

37691-44086 (81777)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 16 top traders (69%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb33edf81...6da204

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793117100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.0K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

sir-upalot

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$67.62

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