Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$752.49

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 18 top traders (61%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,011

Combined PnL-$901.19

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,080

Combined PnL+$148.7

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 26.5¢	$748.48	—	-$748.48	56% 7359-5668 (13027)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$583.1	$595	+$11.9	93% 22201-1713 (23914)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 41.7¢	$535.43	$459.53	-$75.9	64% 57269-32043 (89312)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.7¢	$309.8	—	-$309.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$225.63	$459.53	+$233.9
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$304.41	$422.56	+$118.15	56% 13344-10656 (24000)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$212.75	$422.56	+$209.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.8¢	$91.66	—	-$91.66
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$441.78	$241.41	-$200.37	57% 68891-52429 (121320)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$281.44	—	-$281.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$160.34	$241.41	+$81.07
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 59.5¢	$130.17	$218.77	+$88.59	56% 57363-44319 (101682)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$125.55	$186.86	+$61.32	56% 12074-9320 (21394)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$60.15	$186.86	+$126.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$65.39	—	-$65.39
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$139.27	$127.67	-$9.29	55% 6998-5742 (12740)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$62.04	$127.67	+$65.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$74.8	—	-$74.8
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$229.44	$66	-$163.44	57% 11614-8625 (20239)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.4¢	$172.35	—	-$172.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.5¢	$57.09	$66	+$8.91
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 34.3¢	$59.94	$64.12	+$4.18	52% 88881-83328 (172209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$29.5	$64.12	+$34.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$30.44	—	-$30.44
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$92.34	—	-$92.34	57% 9998-7502 (17500)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$79.9	$51.25	-$28.65	49% 4841-5002 (9843)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$55.98	—	-$55.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$23.92	$51.25	+$27.34
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.8¢	$61.64	$55.27	-$6.37	66% 123902-63779 (187681)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$55.11	$46.64	+$0.45	61% 93357-58685 (152042)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$52.04	$69	+$16.96	60% 11798-7720 (19518)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$33.58	—	-$33.58	55% 43651-36077 (79728)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$39.93	$51.43	+$11.5	55% 23495-19017 (42512)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 6.6¢	$9.87	—	-$9.87	46% 37691-44086 (81777)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$8.21	—	-$8.21	55% 8253-6690 (14943)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 35¢	$8	$22.86	+$14.86	58% 12450-9109 (21559)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Upavg 87¢	$8.7	—	-$8.7	50% 616-628 (1244)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$3.35	$10	+$6.65	62% 43473-26393 (69866)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 91.3¢	$5.88	$6.44	+$0.56	65% 3812-2058 (5870)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 28¢	$1.4	$5	+$3.6	65% 123648-66111 (189759)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3604-2795 (6399)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$748.48

Value

—

PnL

-$748.48

Record

56%

7359-5668 (13027)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$583.1

Value

$595

PnL

+$11.9

Record

93%

22201-1713 (23914)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$535.43

Value

$459.53

PnL

-$75.9

Record

64%

57269-32043 (89312)

Both legs:

Up$309.841.7¢-$309.8

Down$225.6349.1¢+$233.9

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$304.41

Value

$422.56

PnL

+$118.15

Record

56%

13344-10656 (24000)

Both legs:

Down$212.7550.3¢+$209.81

Up$91.6632.8¢-$91.66

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$441.78

Value

$241.41

PnL

-$200.37

Record

57%

68891-52429 (121320)

Both legs:

Up$281.4469.9¢-$281.44

Down$160.3466.4¢+$81.07

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$130.17

Value

$218.77

PnL

+$88.59

Record

56%

57363-44319 (101682)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$125.55

Value

$186.86

PnL

+$61.32

Record

56%

12074-9320 (21394)

Both legs:

Down$60.1532.2¢+$126.71

Up$65.3945.1¢-$65.39

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$139.27

Value

$127.67

PnL

-$9.29

Record

55%

6998-5742 (12740)

Both legs:

Down$62.0448.6¢+$65.51

Up$74.842.5¢-$74.8

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$229.44

Value

$66

PnL

-$163.44

Record

57%

11614-8625 (20239)

Both legs:

Up$172.3569.4¢-$172.35

Down$57.0986.5¢+$8.91

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$64.12

PnL

+$4.18

Record

52%

88881-83328 (172209)

Both legs:

Down$29.546¢+$34.62

Up$30.4434.3¢-$30.44

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$92.34

Value

—

PnL

-$92.34

Record

57%

9998-7502 (17500)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$79.9

Value

$51.25

PnL

-$28.65

Record

49%

4841-5002 (9843)

Both legs:

Up$55.9857.8¢-$55.98

Down$23.9246.7¢+$27.34

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$61.64

Value

$55.27

PnL

-$6.37

Record

66%

123902-63779 (187681)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$55.11

Value

$46.64

PnL

+$0.45

Record

61%

93357-58685 (152042)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$52.04

Value

$69

PnL

+$16.96

Record

60%

11798-7720 (19518)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$33.58

Value

—

PnL

-$33.58

Record

55%

43651-36077 (79728)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$39.93

Value

$51.43

PnL

+$11.5

Record

55%

23495-19017 (42512)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

—

PnL

-$9.87

Record

46%

37691-44086 (81777)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$8.21

Value

—

PnL

-$8.21

Record

55%

8253-6690 (14943)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$14.86

Record

58%

12450-9109 (21559)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

—

PnL

-$8.7

Record

50%

616-628 (1244)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$3.35

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.65

Record

62%

43473-26393 (69866)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.56

Record

65%

3812-2058 (5870)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.4

Value

PnL

+$3.6

Record

65%

123648-66111 (189759)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3604-2795 (6399)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 18 top traders (61%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x229ad963...875ed5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793116800

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

CTR

Up — $0

-$748.48

hoodquant

Down — $595

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $218.77

+$88.59

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$61.32

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Arbitrage — excluded