Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$508.11

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,217

Combined PnL+$699.51

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,011

Combined PnL-$191.4

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 98.8¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$37.09	56% 29156-23025 (52181)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 83.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$22.28	56% 7346-5657 (13003)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$639.35	$682.69	+$43.34	56% 13332-10653 (23985)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$394.71	$682.69	+$287.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$244.64	—	-$244.64
TE Telawin	Downavg 64¢	$500	$781.25	+$281.25	51% 334-324 (658)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 14.1¢	$140.2	—	-$140.2	57% 68886-52428 (121314)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$245.91	$240.38	-$5.54	56% 12062-9316 (21378)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$152.96	$240.38	+$87.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$92.96	—	-$92.96
machinelearned	Downavg 58.2¢	$204.18	$324.86	+$120.68	55% 8242-6683 (14925)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 68.7¢	$203.1	$244.05	+$40.96	55% 6988-5735 (12723)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$177.37	$164.54	-$12.83	49% 4825-5000 (9825)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$102.91	$164.54	+$61.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$74.46	—	-$74.46
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$166.22	$150.8	-$15.42	67% 53033-26460 (79493)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$96.76	$150.8	+$54.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$69.46	—	-$69.46
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 61.5¢	$149.06	$242.24	+$93.18	57% 11602-8621 (20223)
ohioism	Downavg 85¢	$127.57	$150.08	+$22.51	64% 39565-22568 (62133)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$62.11	$89.04	+$29.13	60% 11789-7712 (19501)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85¢	$52.2	$60	+$7.8	65% 123614-66086 (189700)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 44.3¢	$56.38	$127.37	+$70.98	55% 23487-19011 (42498)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.1¢	$43.71	—	-$43.71	59% 61790-42736 (104526)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$54.27	$63.99	+$9.72	55% 43615-36054 (79669)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.7¢	$47.18	$41.14	-$6.04	61% 93307-58673 (151980)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$31.84	$40.4	+$8.56	66% 123851-63765 (187616)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 79¢	$22.46	$28.43	+$5.97	57% 9987-7495 (17482)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$7.5	—	-$7.5	52% 88842-83309 (172151)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19588-18771 (38359)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3603-2795 (6398)