Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,292

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Up11 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,467

Combined PnL+$413.05

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	$-4.3K	56% 3603-2795 (6398)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35.01	74% 101930-36258 (138188)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$744.21	$735.01	-$9.2	56% 13332-10653 (23985)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$457.97	$735.01	+$277.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.3¢	$286.24	—	-$286.24
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$481.88	$548.23	+$66.35	56% 7346-5657 (13003)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$193.62	—	-$193.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$288.26	$548.23	+$259.97
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$293.32	$460	+$166.68	57% 68886-52428 (121314)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$238.6	$460	+$221.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$54.72	—	-$54.72
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 36.8¢	$237.55	$108.53	-$127.92	55% 6988-5735 (12723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$159.35	—	-$160.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.4¢	$76.35	$108.53	+$32.18
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 59.9¢	$211.55	$237.25	+$25.7	49% 4825-5000 (9825)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$142.19	$237.25	+$95.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$69.35	—	-$69.35
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$177.49	$206.49	+$29	56% 12062-9316 (21378)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$114.56	$206.49	+$91.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.3¢	$62.93	—	-$62.93
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$162.02	$181.84	+$19.82	67% 53033-26460 (79493)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$98.67	$181.84	+$83.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.7¢	$63.35	—	-$63.35
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 49.7¢	$168.93	$302.42	+$133.49	60% 11789-7712 (19501)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 29.1¢	$138.5	$75	-$63.5	55% 8242-6683 (14925)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.1¢	$83.25	—	-$83.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.7¢	$55.25	$75	+$19.75
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 63.3¢	$179.38	$260.98	+$81.6	57% 11602-8621 (20223)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 83.9¢	$189.54	$150.42	-$39.12	65% 123614-66086 (189700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.9¢	$126.18	$150.42	+$24.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$63.36	—	-$63.36
PB PBot-6	Upavg 47.4¢	$68.15	$143.71	+$75.56	58% 50641-36775 (87416)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 29.8¢	$42.23	—	-$42.23	55% 23487-19011 (42498)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$37.46	—	-$37.46	46% 37681-44061 (81742)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 85¢	$43.17	$43.05	-$0.12	52% 88842-83309 (172151)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 32¢	$18.72	$58.5	+$39.78	62% 43463-26375 (69838)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 87.7¢	$40.28	$43.3	+$3.02	66% 123851-63765 (187616)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 78¢	$23.4	$30	+$6.6	51% 19588-18771 (38359)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$13.4	—	-$13.4	56% 57352-44305 (101657)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 29¢	$10.15	$35	+$24.85	57% 9987-7495 (17482)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$28.57	$32.64	+$4.13	61% 93307-58673 (151980)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$22.89	$16.12	+$9.14	65% 20670-11287 (31957)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.97	—	-$10.97	58% 59923-43742 (103665)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

56%

3603-2795 (6398)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,465.89

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35.01

Record

74%

101930-36258 (138188)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$744.21

Value

$735.01

PnL

-$9.2

Record

56%

13332-10653 (23985)

Both legs:

Up$457.9762.3¢+$277.04

Down$286.2443.3¢-$286.24

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$481.88

Value

$548.23

PnL

+$66.35

Record

56%

7346-5657 (13003)

Both legs:

Down$193.6229.7¢-$193.62

Up$288.2652.6¢+$259.97

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$293.32

Value

$460

PnL

+$166.68

Record

57%

68886-52428 (121314)

Both legs:

Up$238.651.9¢+$221.4

Down$54.7238¢-$54.72

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$237.55

Value

$108.53

PnL

-$127.92

Record

55%

6988-5735 (12723)

Both legs:

Down$159.3536.8¢-$160.09

Up$76.3570.4¢+$32.18

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$211.55

Value

$237.25

PnL

+$25.7

Record

49%

4825-5000 (9825)

Both legs:

Up$142.1959.9¢+$95.06

Down$69.3532.8¢-$69.35

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$177.49

Value

$206.49

PnL

+$29

Record

56%

12062-9316 (21378)

Both legs:

Up$114.5655.5¢+$91.93

Down$62.9331.3¢-$62.93

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$162.02

Value

$181.84

PnL

+$19.82

Record

67%

53033-26460 (79493)

Both legs:

Up$98.6754.3¢+$83.17

Down$63.3532.7¢-$63.35

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$168.93

Value

$302.42

PnL

+$133.49

Record

60%

11789-7712 (19501)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.5

Value

$75

PnL

-$63.5

Record

55%

8242-6683 (14925)

Both legs:

Down$83.2529.1¢-$83.25

Up$55.2573.7¢+$19.75

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$179.38

Value

$260.98

PnL

+$81.6

Record

57%

11602-8621 (20223)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$189.54

Value

$150.42

PnL

-$39.12

Record

65%

123614-66086 (189700)

Both legs:

Up$126.1883.9¢+$24.24

Down$63.3671.2¢-$63.36

PBot-6

Invested

$68.15

Value

$143.71

PnL

+$75.56

Record

58%

50641-36775 (87416)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.23

Value

—

PnL

-$42.23

Record

55%

23487-19011 (42498)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.46

Value

—

PnL

-$37.46

Record

46%

37681-44061 (81742)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$43.17

Value

$43.05

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

88842-83309 (172151)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$39.78

Record

62%

43463-26375 (69838)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$40.28

Value

$43.3

PnL

+$3.02

Record

66%

123851-63765 (187616)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$30

PnL

+$6.6

Record

51%

19588-18771 (38359)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.4

Value

—

PnL

-$13.4

Record

56%

57352-44305 (101657)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$35

PnL

+$24.85

Record

57%

9987-7495 (17482)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$4.13

Record

61%

93307-58673 (151980)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$22.89

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$9.14

Record

65%

20670-11287 (31957)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.97

Value

—

PnL

-$10.97

Record

58%

59923-43742 (103665)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc125fecc...4fc2fd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793111400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.3K

BoneOhio

Up — $3.5K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $302.42

+$133.49

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