Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 95%
2 arb excluded
$4.8K
$25.37
Smart Money Signal
21 of 23 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 59% 61779-42723 (104502) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 88.5¢ | $205.5 | $216.35 | +$10.85 | 53% 26694-23808 (50502) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $218.86 | $194 | -$24.86 | 49% 4819-4988 (9807) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 91.9¢ | $235.91 | $182.19 | -$53.73 | 56% 7329-5651 (12980) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 43.8¢ | $143.05 | $114.02 | -$29.03 | 56% 13324-10646 (23970) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.8¢ | $82.26 | — | -$82.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.3¢ | $60.79 | $114.02 | +$53.23 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 58.8¢ | $88.72 | $137.12 | +$48.4 | 55% 6980-5725 (12705) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 33.5¢ | $223.51 | $72.65 | -$150.85 | 55% 8232-6675 (14907) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.5¢ | $160.87 | — | -$160.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 86.2¢ | $62.63 | $72.65 | +$10.02 | |
ST std0 | Upavg 92¢ | $135.31 | $120 | -$15.31 | 67% 53025-26450 (79475) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 83.2¢ | $99.07 | $108.56 | +$9.49 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 84.6¢ | $92.76 | $109.63 | +$16.87 | 57% 9977-7486 (17463) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $84.84 | $64.19 | -$20.64 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $85.14 | $99 | +$13.86 | 57% 11593-8612 (20205) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $55.63 | $68.73 | +$13.1 | 56% 12053-9310 (21363) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 89.7¢ | $53.68 | $59.84 | +$6.16 | 65% 123573-66074 (189647) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $42.73 | $43.99 | +$1.26 | 60% 11776-7707 (19483) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $50 | +$5.5 | 55% 23476-19005 (42481) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 89.9¢ | $42.64 | $47.44 | +$4.8 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 90.8¢ | $37.14 | $40.92 | +$3.78 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $37.38 | $23.16 | -$13.23 | 65% 20619-11265 (31884) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $15.14 | $29.69 | +$14.55 | 58% 50624-36766 (87390) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $13.64 | $15.5 | +$1.86 | 51% 16866-16478 (33344) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.16 | — | -$1.16 | 46% 37670-44030 (81700) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $3.98 | $4.8 | +$0.82 | 56% 57338-44297 (101635) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19576-18764 (38340) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3603-2794 (6397) |
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
61779-42723 (104502)
Invested
$205.5
Value
$216.35
PnL
+$10.85
Record
53%
26694-23808 (50502)
Invested
$218.86
Value
$194
PnL
-$24.86
Record
49%
4819-4988 (9807)
Invested
$235.91
Value
$182.19
PnL
-$53.73
Record
56%
7329-5651 (12980)
Invested
$143.05
Value
$114.02
PnL
-$29.03
Record
56%
13324-10646 (23970)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.72
Value
$137.12
PnL
+$48.4
Record
55%
6980-5725 (12705)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$223.51
Value
$72.65
PnL
-$150.85
Record
55%
8232-6675 (14907)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.31
Value
$120
PnL
-$15.31
Record
67%
53025-26450 (79475)
Invested
$99.07
Value
$108.56
PnL
+$9.49
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
Invested
$92.76
Value
$109.63
PnL
+$16.87
Record
57%
9977-7486 (17463)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$84.84
Value
$64.19
PnL
-$20.64
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Invested
$85.14
Value
$99
PnL
+$13.86
Record
57%
11593-8612 (20205)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$55.63
Value
$68.73
PnL
+$13.1
Record
56%
12053-9310 (21363)
Invested
$53.68
Value
$59.84
PnL
+$6.16
Record
65%
123573-66074 (189647)
Invested
$42.73
Value
$43.99
PnL
+$1.26
Record
60%
11776-7707 (19483)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$5.5
Record
55%
23476-19005 (42481)
Invested
$42.64
Value
$47.44
PnL
+$4.8
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
Invested
$37.14
Value
$40.92
PnL
+$3.78
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
Invested
$37.38
Value
$23.16
PnL
-$13.23
Record
65%
20619-11265 (31884)
Invested
$15.14
Value
$29.69
PnL
+$14.55
Record
58%
50624-36766 (87390)
Invested
$13.64
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$1.86
Record
51%
16866-16478 (33344)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
—
PnL
-$1.16
Record
46%
37670-44030 (81700)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.82
Record
56%
57338-44297 (101635)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19576-18764 (38340)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3603-2794 (6397)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
spartacray
Up — $216.35
ply-pm0
Up — $194
wzbbb
Up — $182.19
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $137.12
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
Up — $120
asdaefef
Up — $108.56
trdyugiolkw
Up — $109.63