Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 46%
2 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$176.56
Smart Money Signal
12 of 25 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Down | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$8.49 | 56% 3603-2794 (6397) |
TE Telawin | Downavg 49.5¢ | $1.0K | $2.0K | +$1.0K | 51% 334-324 (658) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 59.9¢ | $402.02 | $483.29 | +$81.27 | 56% 7329-5651 (12980) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 44¢ | $366.34 | — | -$366.34 | 56% 13324-10646 (23970) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $170.42 | $156.74 | -$13.68 | 49% 4819-4988 (9807) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Upavg 53¢ | $159 | — | -$159 | 48% 22912-24914 (47826) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $151.28 | $168.98 | +$17.7 | 46% 37670-44030 (81700) |
ST std0 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $161.36 | $147.61 | -$13.75 | 67% 53025-26450 (79475) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $157.28 | $169.44 | +$12.16 | 55% 6980-5725 (12705) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.5¢ | $114.41 | $169.44 | +$55.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.7¢ | $42.87 | — | -$42.87 | |
 ohioism | Downavg 76.5¢ | $115.64 | $151.14 | +$35.5 | 64% 39555-22557 (62112) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 46.2¢ | $109.17 | — | -$109.17 | 58% 50624-36766 (87390) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $120.91 | $85.31 | -$35.6 | 56% 12053-9310 (21363) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.7¢ | $67.27 | — | -$67.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.9¢ | $53.64 | $85.31 | +$31.67 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $125.79 | — | -$125.79 | 57% 11593-8612 (20205) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $68.76 | $86.77 | +$19.01 | 60% 11776-7707 (19483) |
SP spartacrayCTR | Upavg 37.6¢ | $218.78 | — | -$218.78 | 53% 26694-23808 (50502) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 56.3¢ | $94.43 | — | -$94.43 | 55% 23476-19005 (42481) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.5¢ | $88.02 | — | -$88.02 | 55% 8232-6675 (14907) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $53 | — | -$53 | 57% 9977-7486 (17463) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $47.2 | $54.43 | +$7.23 | 65% 123573-66074 (189647) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.4¢ | $79.15 | — | -$79.15 | 55% 17077-13720 (30797) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $34.42 | $22 | -$12.42 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $30.4 | — | -$30.4 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.1¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $4.92 | $6 | +$1.08 | 56% 57338-44297 (101635) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.1¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
Invested
$3,372.09
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$8.49
Record
56%
3603-2794 (6397)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
51%
334-324 (658)
Invested
$402.02
Value
$483.29
PnL
+$81.27
Record
56%
7329-5651 (12980)
Invested
$366.34
Value
—
PnL
-$366.34
Record
56%
13324-10646 (23970)
Invested
$170.42
Value
$156.74
PnL
-$13.68
Record
49%
4819-4988 (9807)
Invested
$159
Value
—
PnL
-$159
Record
48%
22912-24914 (47826)
pspspsps5Invested
$151.28
Value
$168.98
PnL
+$17.7
Record
46%
37670-44030 (81700)
Invested
$161.36
Value
$147.61
PnL
-$13.75
Record
67%
53025-26450 (79475)
Invested
$157.28
Value
$169.44
PnL
+$12.16
Record
55%
6980-5725 (12705)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$115.64
Value
$151.14
PnL
+$35.5
Record
64%
39555-22557 (62112)
Invested
$109.17
Value
—
PnL
-$109.17
Record
58%
50624-36766 (87390)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$120.91
Value
$85.31
PnL
-$35.6
Record
56%
12053-9310 (21363)
Both legs:
Invested
$125.79
Value
—
PnL
-$125.79
Record
57%
11593-8612 (20205)
Invested
$68.76
Value
$86.77
PnL
+$19.01
Record
60%
11776-7707 (19483)
Invested
$218.78
Value
—
PnL
-$218.78
Record
53%
26694-23808 (50502)
Invested
$94.43
Value
—
PnL
-$94.43
Record
55%
23476-19005 (42481)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$88.02
Value
—
PnL
-$88.02
Record
55%
8232-6675 (14907)
Invested
$53
Value
—
PnL
-$53
Record
57%
9977-7486 (17463)
Invested
$47.2
Value
$54.43
PnL
+$7.23
Record
65%
123573-66074 (189647)
Invested
$79.15
Value
—
PnL
-$79.15
Record
55%
17077-13720 (30797)
Invested
$34.42
Value
$22
PnL
-$12.42
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$30.4
Value
—
PnL
-$30.4
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.08
Record
56%
57338-44297 (101635)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $3.4K
Telawin
Down — $2.0K
wzbbb
Down — $483.29
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $156.74
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
Down — $168.98
std0
Down — $147.61
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Down — $151.14