Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 90%
4 arb excluded
$13.1K
$230.4
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$37.78 | 59% 61779-42723 (104502) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.01 | 74% 101913-36258 (138171) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.46 | 56% 29154-23025 (52179) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $937.53 | $947 | +$9.47 | 93% 22150-1708 (23858) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98.3¢ | $410.27 | $417.5 | +$7.24 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 91.2¢ | $343.45 | $303.12 | -$40.32 | 56% 7329-5651 (12980) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 91.2¢ | $276.56 | $303.12 | +$26.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 15.7¢ | $66.89 | — | -$66.89 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 82.2¢ | $322.7 | $335.66 | +$12.96 | 49% 4819-4988 (9807) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $248.38 | $233.89 | -$14.49 | 56% 13324-10646 (23970) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.5¢ | $190.51 | $233.89 | +$43.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.8¢ | $57.86 | — | -$57.86 | |
ST std0 | Upavg 85.7¢ | $177.26 | $179.35 | +$2.09 | 67% 53025-26450 (79475) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $151.35 | $191.92 | +$40.57 | 57% 11593-8612 (20205) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 84.8¢ | $129.06 | $125 | -$4.06 | 55% 8232-6675 (14907) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.8¢ | $106 | $125 | +$19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.3¢ | $23.06 | — | -$23.06 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 99¢ | $148.58 | $150.08 | +$1.5 | 56% 57338-44297 (101635) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $84.68 | $106.98 | +$22.3 | 55% 17077-13720 (30797) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $71.74 | $88 | +$16.26 | 55% 6980-5725 (12705) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 18.8¢ | $57.65 | $30 | -$27.65 | 56% 12053-9310 (21363) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.8¢ | $31.95 | — | -$31.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85.7¢ | $25.7 | $30 | +$4.3 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85.1¢ | $57.06 | $67.08 | +$10.02 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 87.1¢ | $41.95 | $48.18 | +$6.23 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 97.7¢ | $37.39 | $38.27 | +$0.88 | 63% 50639-29898 (80537) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $24.99 | $52.06 | +$27.07 | 58% 37208-26416 (63624) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.1¢ | $14.12 | — | -$14.12 | 55% 23476-19005 (42481) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $20 | +$2.8 | 65% 20619-11265 (31884) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 58% 12440-9099 (21539) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $11.89 | $10 | -$1.89 | 60% 11776-7707 (19483) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $6.22 | $5 | -$1.22 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3603-2794 (6397) |
Invested
$3,740.23
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$37.78
Record
59%
61779-42723 (104502)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970.89
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.01
Record
74%
101913-36258 (138171)
Invested
$2,916.54
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.46
Record
56%
29154-23025 (52179)
Invested
$937.53
Value
$947
PnL
+$9.47
Record
93%
22150-1708 (23858)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$410.27
Value
$417.5
PnL
+$7.24
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Invested
$343.45
Value
$303.12
PnL
-$40.32
Record
56%
7329-5651 (12980)
Both legs:
Invested
$322.7
Value
$335.66
PnL
+$12.96
Record
49%
4819-4988 (9807)
Invested
$248.38
Value
$233.89
PnL
-$14.49
Record
56%
13324-10646 (23970)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.26
Value
$179.35
PnL
+$2.09
Record
67%
53025-26450 (79475)
Invested
$151.35
Value
$191.92
PnL
+$40.57
Record
57%
11593-8612 (20205)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$129.06
Value
$125
PnL
-$4.06
Record
55%
8232-6675 (14907)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.58
Value
$150.08
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
57338-44297 (101635)
Invested
$84.68
Value
$106.98
PnL
+$22.3
Record
55%
17077-13720 (30797)
Invested
$71.74
Value
$88
PnL
+$16.26
Record
55%
6980-5725 (12705)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$57.65
Value
$30
PnL
-$27.65
Record
56%
12053-9310 (21363)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.06
Value
$67.08
PnL
+$10.02
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
Invested
$41.95
Value
$48.18
PnL
+$6.23
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$37.39
Value
$38.27
PnL
+$0.88
Record
63%
50639-29898 (80537)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$52.06
PnL
+$27.07
Record
58%
37208-26416 (63624)
Invested
$14.12
Value
—
PnL
-$14.12
Record
55%
23476-19005 (42481)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.8
Record
65%
20619-11265 (31884)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
58%
12440-9099 (21539)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.89
Record
60%
11776-7707 (19483)
Invested
$6.22
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.22
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3603-2794 (6397)
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