Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 76%
3 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$636.92
Smart Money Signal
17 of 23 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 51.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$21.02 | 56% 13324-10646 (23970) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 58.7¢ | $728.4 | $957.96 | +$229.57 | 78% 9207-2671 (11878) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $532.05 | $629.93 | +$97.89 | 49% 4819-4988 (9807) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 54.8¢ | $596.12 | $575.37 | -$20.75 | 56% 12053-9310 (21363) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $501.06 | $506.12 | +$5.06 | 93% 22150-1708 (23858) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 25.7¢ | $550.39 | — | -$550.39 | 56% 7329-5651 (12980) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 78.6¢ | $389.04 | $373.82 | -$15.21 | 60% 11776-7707 (19483) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $219.09 | $299.25 | +$80.16 | 57% 11593-8612 (20205) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 58.4¢ | $203.15 | $190.98 | -$12.17 | 55% 6980-5725 (12705) |
AL almach | Upavg 74.9¢ | $172.18 | $187 | +$14.82 | 55% 47790-39367 (87157) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 16.8¢ | $282.4 | — | -$282.4 | 55% 8232-6675 (14907) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 98¢ | $190.14 | $132 | -$58.14 | 58% 37208-26416 (63624) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $107.06 | $104.28 | +$9.42 | 65% 123573-66074 (189647) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $58.39 | $104.28 | +$38.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.9¢ | $29.06 | — | -$29.06 | |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | 55% 23476-19005 (42481) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $80.5 | $67.04 | -$13.46 | 67% 53025-26450 (79475) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.4¢ | $48.54 | $67.04 | +$18.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.6¢ | $31.96 | — | -$31.96 | |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $74.42 | $39 | -$35.42 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.4¢ | $50.63 | — | -$50.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61¢ | $23.79 | $39 | +$15.21 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 87.7¢ | $63.96 | $57.34 | -$6.62 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 94.7¢ | $50.27 | $42.54 | -$7.73 | 63% 50639-29898 (80537) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $37.46 | $51.53 | +$14.08 | 65% 20619-11265 (31884) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $21.68 | — | -$21.68 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $21.49 | — | -$21.49 | 55% 17077-13720 (30797) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $9.24 | $21.71 | +$12.47 | 46% 37670-44030 (81700) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $7.65 | $10.22 | +$2.57 | 65% 3796-2052 (5848) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $1.4 | $2.91 | +$1.51 | 57% 9977-7486 (17463) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $26.04 | — | -$21.48 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
Invested
$1,051.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$21.02
Record
56%
13324-10646 (23970)
NIULAI4Invested
$728.4
Value
$957.96
PnL
+$229.57
Record
78%
9207-2671 (11878)
Invested
$532.05
Value
$629.93
PnL
+$97.89
Record
49%
4819-4988 (9807)
FairValueMachineInvested
$596.12
Value
$575.37
PnL
-$20.75
Record
56%
12053-9310 (21363)
Invested
$501.06
Value
$506.12
PnL
+$5.06
Record
93%
22150-1708 (23858)
Invested
$550.39
Value
—
PnL
-$550.39
Record
56%
7329-5651 (12980)
Invested
$389.04
Value
$373.82
PnL
-$15.21
Record
60%
11776-7707 (19483)
Invested
$219.09
Value
$299.25
PnL
+$80.16
Record
57%
11593-8612 (20205)
Invested
$203.15
Value
$190.98
PnL
-$12.17
Record
55%
6980-5725 (12705)
Invested
$172.18
Value
$187
PnL
+$14.82
Record
55%
47790-39367 (87157)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$282.4
Value
—
PnL
-$282.4
Record
55%
8232-6675 (14907)
Invested
$190.14
Value
$132
PnL
-$58.14
Record
58%
37208-26416 (63624)
Invested
$107.06
Value
$104.28
PnL
+$9.42
Record
65%
123573-66074 (189647)
Both legs:
Invested
$98
Value
—
PnL
-$98
Record
55%
23476-19005 (42481)
Invested
$80.5
Value
$67.04
PnL
-$13.46
Record
67%
53025-26450 (79475)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$74.42
Value
$39
PnL
-$35.42
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.96
Value
$57.34
PnL
-$6.62
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$50.27
Value
$42.54
PnL
-$7.73
Record
63%
50639-29898 (80537)
Invested
$37.46
Value
$51.53
PnL
+$14.08
Record
65%
20619-11265 (31884)
Invested
$21.68
Value
—
PnL
-$21.68
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
Invested
$21.49
Value
—
PnL
-$21.49
Record
55%
17077-13720 (30797)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$9.24
Value
$21.71
PnL
+$12.47
Record
46%
37670-44030 (81700)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$7.65
Value
$10.22
PnL
+$2.57
Record
65%
3796-2052 (5848)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$1.51
Record
57%
9977-7486 (17463)
Invested
$26.04
Value
—
PnL
-$21.48
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoodFallen
Up — $1.1K
NIULAI4
Up — $957.96
ply-pm0
Up — $629.93
FairValueMachine
Up — $575.37
hoodquant
Up — $506.12
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $373.82
EZTRADENL2
Up — $299.25
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $190.98
almach
Up — $187