Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$156.93

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,168

Combined PnL+$335.38

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,059

Combined PnL-$178.45

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 98.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$40.09	56% 29154-23025 (52179)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$916.57	$938.81	+$22.24	56% 7329-5651 (12980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.1¢	$808.51	$938.81	+$130.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.2¢	$108.06	—	-$108.06
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$149.52	$129.9	-$19.62	55% 8232-6675 (14907)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.9¢	$41.08	—	-$41.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.5¢	$108.44	$129.9	+$21.46
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 12.4¢	$49.3	—	-$49.3	55% 47790-39367 (87157)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$178.75	$200	+$21.25	51% 16866-16478 (33344)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2.5¢	$5	—	-$5
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.9¢	$173.75	$200	+$26.25
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$174.02	$180	+$5.98	67% 53025-26450 (79475)
└ Up leg	Upavg 6¢	$12.62	—	-$12.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.7¢	$161.4	$180	+$18.6
MayorMamdani	Downavg 89.7¢	$287.55	$312.11	+$24.56	55% 43591-36019 (79610)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$166.36	$162.69	-$3.67	49% 4819-4988 (9807)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.9¢	$138.17	$162.69	+$24.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 19¢	$28.19	—	-$28.19
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$151.25	$137	-$14.25	56% 13324-10646 (23970)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$55.94	—	-$55.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.6¢	$95.31	$137	+$41.69
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$55.1	—	-$55.1	55% 17077-13720 (30797)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.1¢	$106.65	$212.18	+$105.53	58% 37208-26416 (63624)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$82.87	$78.7	-$4.17	62% 28083-17473 (45556)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 53.9¢	$106.34	$180.4	+$74.06	57% 11593-8612 (20205)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$99.84	$101.77	+$1.93	66% 123808-63743 (187551)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.2¢	$77.57	$101.77	+$24.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 27¢	$22.27	—	-$22.27
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 16.8¢	$39.38	—	-$39.38	56% 12053-9310 (21363)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$11.73	—	-$11.73	46% 37670-44030 (81700)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 85.9¢	$137.4	$160	+$22.6	57% 9977-7486 (17463)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 83¢	$120.36	$139.39	+$23.03	60% 11776-7707 (19483)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 12.3¢	$20.54	—	-$20.54	55% 6980-5725 (12705)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 49¢	$33.41	$64.9	+$31.49	65% 123573-66074 (189647)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$23.81	$33.45	+$9.64	52% 88816-83270 (172086)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 73.7¢	$39.42	$42.38	+$8.42	61% 93280-58641 (151921)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	51% 19576-18764 (38340)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 88¢	$66.56	$1	+$0.12	48% 22912-24914 (47826)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3603-2794 (6397)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,902.91

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$40.09

Record

56%

29154-23025 (52179)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$916.57

Value

$938.81

PnL

+$22.24

Record

56%

7329-5651 (12980)

Both legs:

Down$808.5186.1¢+$130.3

Up$108.0617.2¢-$108.06

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$149.52

Value

$129.9

PnL

-$19.62

Record

55%

8232-6675 (14907)

Both legs:

Up$41.0814.9¢-$41.08

Down$108.4483.5¢+$21.46

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$49.3

Value

—

PnL

-$49.3

Record

55%

47790-39367 (87157)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$178.75

Value

$200

PnL

+$21.25

Record

51%

16866-16478 (33344)

Both legs:

Up$52.5¢-$5

Down$173.7586.9¢+$26.25

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.02

Value

$180

PnL

+$5.98

Record

67%

53025-26450 (79475)

Both legs:

Up$12.626¢-$12.62

Down$161.489.7¢+$18.6

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$287.55

Value

$312.11

PnL

+$24.56

Record

55%

43591-36019 (79610)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.36

Value

$162.69

PnL

-$3.67

Record

49%

4819-4988 (9807)

Both legs:

Down$138.1784.9¢+$24.52

Up$28.1919¢-$28.19

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.25

Value

$137

PnL

-$14.25

Record

56%

13324-10646 (23970)

Both legs:

Up$55.9440.9¢-$55.94

Down$95.3169.6¢+$41.69

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$55.1

Value

—

PnL

-$55.1

Record

55%

17077-13720 (30797)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$106.65

Value

$212.18

PnL

+$105.53

Record

58%

37208-26416 (63624)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$82.87

Value

$78.7

PnL

-$4.17

Record

62%

28083-17473 (45556)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$106.34

Value

$180.4

PnL

+$74.06

Record

57%

11593-8612 (20205)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$99.84

Value

$101.77

PnL

+$1.93

Record

66%

123808-63743 (187551)

Both legs:

Down$77.5776.2¢+$24.2

Up$22.2727¢-$22.27

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$39.38

Value

—

PnL

-$39.38

Record

56%

12053-9310 (21363)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$11.73

Value

—

PnL

-$11.73

Record

46%

37670-44030 (81700)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$137.4

Value

$160

PnL

+$22.6

Record

57%

9977-7486 (17463)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$120.36

Value

$139.39

PnL

+$23.03

Record

60%

11776-7707 (19483)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$20.54

Value

—

PnL

-$20.54

Record

55%

6980-5725 (12705)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$33.41

Value

$64.9

PnL

+$31.49

Record

65%

123573-66074 (189647)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$23.81

Value

$33.45

PnL

+$9.64

Record

52%

88816-83270 (172086)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$39.42

Value

$42.38

PnL

+$8.42

Record

61%

93280-58641 (151921)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

19576-18764 (38340)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Down

Invested

$66.56

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

22912-24914 (47826)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3603-2794 (6397)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x63347c6f...b98ad5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793102400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.9K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Up — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Down — $312.11

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0