Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$49.95

Smart Money Signal

21 of 23 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,385

Combined PnL+$95.3

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares83

Combined PnL-$45.35

Up — 91%Down — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.4	56% 29153-23025 (52178)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.73	59% 61774-42703 (104477)
machinelearned	Upavg 91.6¢	$148	$140	-$8	55% 8221-6669 (14890)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Upavg 97¢	$151.3	$155.98	+$4.68	51% 863-837 (1700)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 92.1¢	$123.92	$134.61	+$10.69	62% 28050-17462 (45512)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 88¢	$111.52	$118.59	+$7.47	60% 11768-7698 (19466)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 93.3¢	$112.1	$120.11	+$8.01	55% 17045-13693 (30738)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 81.5¢	$178.6	$219.25	+$40.65	57% 9969-7479 (17448)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 78.1¢	$75.95	$63.49	-$12.46	56% 7316-5641 (12957)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.1¢	$49.61	$63.49	+$13.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.1¢	$26.35	—	-$26.35
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 98.9¢	$83.75	$84.68	+$0.93	55% 43574-35987 (79561)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 95.6¢	$50.01	$52.33	+$2.32	55% 6967-5721 (12688)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$40.55	—	-$40.55	58% 37196-26405 (63601)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 93.9¢	$38.26	$38.51	+$0.25	52% 88790-83234 (172024)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 93.4¢	$35.19	$37.69	+$2.5	49% 4812-4978 (9790)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 98¢	$28.42	$29	+$0.58	65% 3786-2049 (5835)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$18.11	$20.26	+$2.15	66% 123770-63721 (187491)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$10	+$0.06	65% 20576-11237 (31813)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 90.7¢	$16.74	$18.46	+$1.72	61% 93252-58615 (151867)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 90¢	$16.26	$18.07	+$1.81	56% 13313-10640 (23953)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700<$100	Upavg 85¢	$15.3	$18	+$2.7	63% 1745-1010 (2755)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$5.88	$6	+$0.12	93% 22133-1706 (23839)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$4.8	—	-$4.8	58% 50620-36754 (87374)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19565-18744 (38309)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3603-2794 (6397)

THG.

Invested

$2,910.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.4

Record

56%

29153-23025 (52178)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,236.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.73

Record

59%

61774-42703 (104477)

machinelearned

Invested

$148

Value

$140

PnL

-$8

Record

55%

8221-6669 (14890)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Invested

$151.3

Value

$155.98

PnL

+$4.68

Record

51%

863-837 (1700)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$123.92

Value

$134.61

PnL

+$10.69

Record

62%

28050-17462 (45512)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$111.52

Value

$118.59

PnL

+$7.47

Record

60%

11768-7698 (19466)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$112.1

Value

$120.11

PnL

+$8.01

Record

55%

17045-13693 (30738)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$178.6

Value

$219.25

PnL

+$40.65

Record

57%

9969-7479 (17448)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$75.95

Value

$63.49

PnL

-$12.46

Record

56%

7316-5641 (12957)

Both legs:

Up$49.6178.1¢+$13.88

Down$26.354.1¢-$26.35

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$83.75

Value

$84.68

PnL

+$0.93

Record

55%

43574-35987 (79561)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$50.01

Value

$52.33

PnL

+$2.32

Record

55%

6967-5721 (12688)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.55

Value

—

PnL

-$40.55

Record

58%

37196-26405 (63601)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$38.26

Value

$38.51

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

88790-83234 (172024)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$35.19

Value

$37.69

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

4812-4978 (9790)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$28.42

Value

$29

PnL

+$0.58

Record

65%

3786-2049 (5835)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$18.11

Value

$20.26

PnL

+$2.15

Record

66%

123770-63721 (187491)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.06

Record

65%

20576-11237 (31813)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$16.74

Value

$18.46

PnL

+$1.72

Record

61%

93252-58615 (151867)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$16.26

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$1.81

Record

56%

13313-10640 (23953)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$18

PnL

+$2.7

Record

63%

1745-1010 (2755)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

93%

22133-1706 (23839)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

—

PnL

-$4.8

Record

58%

50620-36754 (87374)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19565-18744 (38309)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3603-2794 (6397)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 23 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc26fcc4c...ec1c6e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793102100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$29.4

0x50f7

Up — $1.2K

-$12.73

machinelearned

Up — $140

-$8

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Up — $155.98

+$4.68

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $134.61

+$10.69

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $118.59

+$7.47

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $120.11

+$8.01

trdyugiolkw

Up — $219.25

+$40.65

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$12.46

MayorMamdani

Up — $84.68

+$0.93

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