Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$206.44

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 27 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,544

Combined PnL+$305.35

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$98.91

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 65.2¢	$698.57	$708.32	+$9.75	56% 7316-5641 (12957)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 49.7¢	$266.53	$375.66	+$109.13	56% 13313-10640 (23953)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.2¢	$286.42	$260.03	-$26.4	49% 4812-4978 (9790)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 78.7¢	$317.46	$269.99	-$47.46	62% 28050-17462 (45512)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 49.6¢	$149.65	$242.19	+$92.54	56% 12049-9298 (21347)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 77.6¢	$194.26	$250.47	+$56.21	58% 59906-43726 (103632)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 51.3¢	$138.03	$201.59	+$63.56	60% 11768-7698 (19466)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 84.8¢	$167.87	$197.92	+$30.05	57% 9969-7479 (17448)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 51.2¢	$146.45	$172.34	+$25.89	57% 11587-8607 (20194)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 73.7¢	$156.73	$144.31	-$12.42	55% 17045-13693 (30738)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 71.9¢	$148.27	$131.47	-$15.91	55% 6967-5721 (12688)
ohioism	Downavg 97¢	$145.68	$150.19	+$4.51	64% 39543-22552 (62095)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$112.34	$97.41	-$14.93	59% 61774-42703 (104477)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 47¢	$49.83	$85.7	+$35.86	67% 53016-26442 (79458)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91.4¢	$88.05	$88.69	+$0.64	52% 88790-83234 (172024)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 43¢	$98.06	$122	+$23.94	65% 123539-66052 (189591)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$45.6	—	-$45.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 43¢	$52.46	$122	+$69.54
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$42.11	—	-$42.11	58% 37196-26405 (63601)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89.1¢	$72.59	$70.17	+$2.37	61% 93252-58615 (151867)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$64.97	$61.11	-$3.86	66% 123770-63721 (187491)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$45.69	—	-$45.69	55% 8221-6669 (14890)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83¢	$29.24	$19.99	-$5.94	65% 20576-11237 (31813)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$2.68	—	-$2.68	46% 37659-44001 (81660)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 96¢	$9.42	$9.81	+$0.39	56% 57324-44290 (101614)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$3	—	-$3	51% 19565-18744 (38309)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$4.08	—	-$4.08	55% 43574-35987 (79561)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$698.57

Value

$708.32

PnL

+$9.75

Record

56%

7316-5641 (12957)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$266.53

Value

$375.66

PnL

+$109.13

Record

56%

13313-10640 (23953)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$286.42

Value

$260.03

PnL

-$26.4

Record

49%

4812-4978 (9790)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$317.46

Value

$269.99

PnL

-$47.46

Record

62%

28050-17462 (45512)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$149.65

Value

$242.19

PnL

+$92.54

Record

56%

12049-9298 (21347)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$194.26

Value

$250.47

PnL

+$56.21

Record

58%

59906-43726 (103632)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$138.03

Value

$201.59

PnL

+$63.56

Record

60%

11768-7698 (19466)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$167.87

Value

$197.92

PnL

+$30.05

Record

57%

9969-7479 (17448)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$146.45

Value

$172.34

PnL

+$25.89

Record

57%

11587-8607 (20194)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$156.73

Value

$144.31

PnL

-$12.42

Record

55%

17045-13693 (30738)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$148.27

Value

$131.47

PnL

-$15.91

Record

55%

6967-5721 (12688)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$145.68

Value

$150.19

PnL

+$4.51

Record

64%

39543-22552 (62095)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$112.34

Value

$97.41

PnL

-$14.93

Record

59%

61774-42703 (104477)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$49.83

Value

$85.7

PnL

+$35.86

Record

67%

53016-26442 (79458)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$88.05

Value

$88.69

PnL

+$0.64

Record

52%

88790-83234 (172024)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.06

Value

$122

PnL

+$23.94

Record

65%

123539-66052 (189591)

Both legs:

Up$45.673¢-$45.6

Down$52.4643¢+$69.54

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$42.11

Value

—

PnL

-$42.11

Record

58%

37196-26405 (63601)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$72.59

Value

$70.17

PnL

+$2.37

Record

61%

93252-58615 (151867)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$64.97

Value

$61.11

PnL

-$3.86

Record

66%

123770-63721 (187491)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$45.69

Value

—

PnL

-$45.69

Record

55%

8221-6669 (14890)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$29.24

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$5.94

Record

65%

20576-11237 (31813)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.68

Value

—

PnL

-$2.68

Record

46%

37659-44001 (81660)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$9.42

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.39

Record

56%

57324-44290 (101614)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

51%

19565-18744 (38309)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

—

PnL

-$4.08

Record

55%

43574-35987 (79561)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 27 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9a4c489f...2b579a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793101800

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $708.32

+$9.75

GoodFallen

Down — $375.66

+$109.13

ply-pm0

Down — $260.03

-$26.4

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $269.99

-$47.46

FairValueMachine

Down — $242.19

+$92.54

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $250.47

+$56.21

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $201.59

+$63.56

trdyugiolkw

Down — $197.92

+$30.05

EZTRADENL2

Down — $172.34

+$25.89

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $144.31

-$12.42

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