Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$213.08

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares851

Combined PnL-$346.82

Down7 traders

Total Value$398.78

Total Shares399

Combined PnL+$133.73

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$96.49	56% 13313-10640 (23953)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$691.11	$1.3K	+$577.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$481.45	—	-$481.45
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$866.42	$1.1K	+$209.85	56% 12049-9298 (21347)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$599.23	$1.1K	+$477.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.2¢	$267.2	—	-$267.2
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$649.77	$643.2	-$6.57	49% 4812-4978 (9790)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.6¢	$344.62	$643.2	+$298.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$305.14	—	-$305.14
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 36.9¢	$645.5	$459.36	-$186.13	56% 7316-5641 (12957)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$380.71	—	-$380.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$264.79	$459.36	+$194.58
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$568.84	$630.02	+$61.18	57% 11587-8607 (20194)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$377.58	$630.02	+$252.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$191.26	—	-$191.26
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$371.85	$516.99	+$145.14	78% 9204-2669 (11873)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$285.18	$516.99	+$231.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$86.67	—	-$86.67
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$453.37	$501.63	+$48.26	62% 28050-17462 (45512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$293.81	$501.63	+$207.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$159.56	—	-$159.56
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$356.75	$373.22	+$16.46	67% 53016-26442 (79458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$172.5	$373.22	+$200.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$184.25	—	-$184.25
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$406.63	$427.86	+$24.53	60% 11768-7698 (19466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$264.22	$427.86	+$163.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$139.63	—	-$139.11
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$258.28	$220.39	-$37.89	55% 6967-5721 (12688)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.1¢	$152.25	$220.39	+$68.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$106.03	—	-$106.03
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 32.9¢	$128.72	—	-$128.72	55% 8221-6669 (14890)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$150.32	$86.57	-$63.74	55% 23466-18999 (42465)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$91.98	—	-$91.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$58.33	$86.57	+$28.24
pspspsps5	Downavg 44¢	$82.08	$150.73	+$68.65	46% 37659-44001 (81660)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 85.9¢	$108.98	$85.43	-$23.55	66% 123770-63721 (187491)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.9¢	$68.19	—	-$68.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$40.79	$85.43	+$44.64
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 14.9¢	$29.6	—	-$29.6	57% 9969-7479 (17448)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$98.35	$88	-$10.35	55% 43574-35987 (79561)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$60.51	$88	+$27.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$37.84	—	-$37.84
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$70.94	—	-$70.94	12% 17863-132677 (150540)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$66.11	$66.11	+$0	68% 98394-46667 (145061)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$41.76	$66.11	+$24.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$24.35	—	-$24.35
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$37.14	—	-$37.14	58% 59906-43726 (103632)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$76.38	$44.84	-$31.54	65% 123539-66052 (189591)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$56.2	—	-$56.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$20.18	$44.84	+$24.66
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 52¢	$39.16	$71.85	+$32.69	58% 37196-26405 (63601)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 94.8¢	$65.81	$69.44	+$3.63	93% 22133-1706 (23839)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$43.85	—	-$31.85	65% 20576-11237 (31813)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 68.4¢	$38.14	$55.72	+$17.58	63% 50616-29893 (80509)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$30.69	—	-$30.69	55% 17045-13693 (30738)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,172.57

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$96.49

Record

56%

13313-10640 (23953)

Both legs:

Down$691.1154.5¢+$577.94

Up$481.4537.9¢-$481.45

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$866.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$209.85

Record

56%

12049-9298 (21347)

Both legs:

Down$599.2355.7¢+$477.05

Up$267.236.2¢-$267.2

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$649.77

Value

$643.2

PnL

-$6.57

Record

49%

4812-4978 (9790)

Both legs:

Down$344.6253.6¢+$298.57

Up$305.1439.1¢-$305.14

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$645.5

Value

$459.36

PnL

-$186.13

Record

56%

7316-5641 (12957)

Both legs:

Up$380.7136.9¢-$380.71

Down$264.7957.6¢+$194.58

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$568.84

Value

$630.02

PnL

+$61.18

Record

57%

11587-8607 (20194)

Both legs:

Down$377.5859.9¢+$252.43

Up$191.2646.1¢-$191.26

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$371.85

Value

$516.99

PnL

+$145.14

Record

78%

9204-2669 (11873)

Both legs:

Down$285.1855.2¢+$231.8

Up$86.6728.1¢-$86.67

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$453.37

Value

$501.63

PnL

+$48.26

Record

62%

28050-17462 (45512)

Both legs:

Down$293.8158.6¢+$207.82

Up$159.5648.8¢-$159.56

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$356.75

Value

$373.22

PnL

+$16.46

Record

67%

53016-26442 (79458)

Both legs:

Down$172.546.2¢+$200.72

Up$184.2550¢-$184.25

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$406.63

Value

$427.86

PnL

+$24.53

Record

60%

11768-7698 (19466)

Both legs:

Down$264.2261.8¢+$163.64

Up$139.6355.7¢-$139.11

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$258.28

Value

$220.39

PnL

-$37.89

Record

55%

6967-5721 (12688)

Both legs:

Down$152.2569.1¢+$68.15

Up$106.0349.5¢-$106.03

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$128.72

Value

—

PnL

-$128.72

Record

55%

8221-6669 (14890)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$150.32

Value

$86.57

PnL

-$63.74

Record

55%

23466-18999 (42465)

Both legs:

Up$91.9849.8¢-$91.98

Down$58.3367.4¢+$28.24

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$82.08

Value

$150.73

PnL

+$68.65

Record

46%

37659-44001 (81660)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$108.98

Value

$85.43

PnL

-$23.55

Record

66%

123770-63721 (187491)

Both legs:

Up$68.1985.9¢-$68.19

Down$40.7947.7¢+$44.64

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$29.6

Value

—

PnL

-$29.6

Record

57%

9969-7479 (17448)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.35

Value

$88

PnL

-$10.35

Record

55%

43574-35987 (79561)

Both legs:

Down$60.5168.8¢+$27.49

Up$37.8457.3¢-$37.84

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$70.94

Value

—

PnL

-$70.94

Record

12%

17863-132677 (150540)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$66.11

Value

$66.11

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

98394-46667 (145061)

Both legs:

Down$41.7663.2¢+$24.35

Up$24.3532.5¢-$24.35

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$37.14

Value

—

PnL

-$37.14

Record

58%

59906-43726 (103632)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$76.38

Value

$44.84

PnL

-$31.54

Record

65%

123539-66052 (189591)

Both legs:

Up$56.257.3¢-$56.2

Down$20.1845¢+$24.66

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$39.16

Value

$71.85

PnL

+$32.69

Record

58%

37196-26405 (63601)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$65.81

Value

$69.44

PnL

+$3.63

Record

93%

22133-1706 (23839)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$43.85

Value

—

PnL

-$31.85

Record

65%

20576-11237 (31813)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$38.14

Value

$55.72

PnL

+$17.58

Record

63%

50616-29893 (80509)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$30.69

Value

—

PnL

-$30.69

Record

55%

17045-13693 (30738)

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7d25d7b8...a398ad

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793101500

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$24.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$37.89

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