Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 92%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$78.87
Smart Money Signal
23 of 26 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 84.9¢ | $567.17 | $561 | -$6.17 | 56% 7316-5641 (12957) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $254.38 | $259.57 | +$5.19 | 93% 22133-1706 (23839) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 94.7¢ | $172.8 | $180 | +$7.2 | 62% 28050-17462 (45512) |
ST std0 | Downavg 98.1¢ | $161.61 | $145.22 | -$16.39 | 67% 53016-26442 (79458) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 84.8¢ | $117.99 | $136.99 | +$19.01 | 55% 6967-5721 (12688) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 90.6¢ | $157.88 | $128 | -$29.88 | 55% 8221-6669 (14890) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 97¢ | $116.4 | $120 | +$3.6 | 57% 9969-7479 (17448) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 54.4¢ | $77.93 | $121.39 | +$43.46 | 56% 12049-9298 (21347) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $88.4 | $91.51 | +$3.11 | 56% 13313-10640 (23953) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.4¢ | $56.21 | $91.51 | +$35.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.1¢ | $32.2 | — | -$32.2 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $60.38 | $98.52 | +$38.14 | 57% 11587-8607 (20194) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $70.25 | $80.07 | +$9.82 | 55% 17045-13693 (30738) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $53.59 | $54.7 | +$1.11 | 46% 37659-44001 (81660) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $53.42 | $50 | -$2.66 | 65% 20576-11237 (31813) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $38.54 | $46.74 | +$8.2 | 49% 4812-4978 (9790) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $63.81 | $36.97 | -$26.83 | 60% 11768-7698 (19466) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 22909-24908 (47817) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $22.93 | $24.14 | +$1.21 | 61% 93252-58615 (151867) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $19.13 | $19.52 | +$0.39 | 63% 50616-29893 (80509) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $19.44 | $23.42 | +$3.98 | 63% 1745-1010 (2755) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $14.4 | $20.21 | +$5.81 | 66% 123770-63721 (187491) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $13 | $26 | +$13 | 12% 17863-132677 (150540) |
VE Vega7CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 74% 2940-1011 (3951) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $13.23 | $21 | +$7.77 | 55% 43574-35987 (79561) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $8.18 | $18.18 | +$10 | 58% 37196-26405 (63601) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $4.92 | $7.93 | +$3.01 | 65% 123539-66052 (189591) |
Invested
$567.17
Value
$561
PnL
-$6.17
Record
56%
7316-5641 (12957)
Invested
$254.38
Value
$259.57
PnL
+$5.19
Record
93%
22133-1706 (23839)
Invested
$172.8
Value
$180
PnL
+$7.2
Record
62%
28050-17462 (45512)
Invested
$161.61
Value
$145.22
PnL
-$16.39
Record
67%
53016-26442 (79458)
Invested
$117.99
Value
$136.99
PnL
+$19.01
Record
55%
6967-5721 (12688)
machinelearnedInvested
$157.88
Value
$128
PnL
-$29.88
Record
55%
8221-6669 (14890)
Invested
$116.4
Value
$120
PnL
+$3.6
Record
57%
9969-7479 (17448)
FairValueMachineInvested
$77.93
Value
$121.39
PnL
+$43.46
Record
56%
12049-9298 (21347)
Invested
$88.4
Value
$91.51
PnL
+$3.11
Record
56%
13313-10640 (23953)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.38
Value
$98.52
PnL
+$38.14
Record
57%
11587-8607 (20194)
Invested
$70.25
Value
$80.07
PnL
+$9.82
Record
55%
17045-13693 (30738)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$53.59
Value
$54.7
PnL
+$1.11
Record
46%
37659-44001 (81660)
Invested
$53.42
Value
$50
PnL
-$2.66
Record
65%
20576-11237 (31813)
Invested
$38.54
Value
$46.74
PnL
+$8.2
Record
49%
4812-4978 (9790)
Invested
$63.81
Value
$36.97
PnL
-$26.83
Record
60%
11768-7698 (19466)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
22909-24908 (47817)
Invested
$22.93
Value
$24.14
PnL
+$1.21
Record
61%
93252-58615 (151867)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$19.13
Value
$19.52
PnL
+$0.39
Record
63%
50616-29893 (80509)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$23.42
PnL
+$3.98
Record
63%
1745-1010 (2755)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$20.21
PnL
+$5.81
Record
66%
123770-63721 (187491)
Invested
$13
Value
$26
PnL
+$13
Record
12%
17863-132677 (150540)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
74%
2940-1011 (3951)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.23
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.77
Record
55%
43574-35987 (79561)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
37196-26405 (63601)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$7.93
PnL
+$3.01
Record
65%
123539-66052 (189591)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $561
hoodquant
Down — $259.57
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Down — $180
std0
Down — $145.22
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $136.99
machinelearned
Down — $128
trdyugiolkw
Down — $120
FairValueMachine
Down — $121.39
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $98.52