Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$101.98
Smart Money Signal
20 of 27 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.47 | 56% 29153-23025 (52178) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 86.4¢ | $552.24 | $498.69 | -$53.55 | 56% 7316-5641 (12957) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $368.93 | $377.62 | +$8.69 | 49% 4812-4978 (9790) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 71.2¢ | $175.49 | $221.26 | +$45.77 | 56% 13313-10640 (23953) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 61.7¢ | $97.17 | $150.43 | +$53.26 | 55% 6967-5721 (12688) |
ST std0 | Downavg 86.1¢ | $126.9 | $130 | +$3.1 | 67% 53016-26442 (79458) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $100.98 | $102 | +$1.02 | 93% 22133-1706 (23839) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $91.23 | $87.99 | -$2.59 | 60% 11768-7698 (19466) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $69.13 | $71.24 | +$2.11 | 55% 8221-6669 (14890) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $50.5 | — | -$50.5 | 58% 50620-36754 (87374) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Upavg 25.8¢ | $54.45 | $30.4 | -$24.05 | 55% 17045-13693 (30738) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.8¢ | $30.2 | — | -$30.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.8¢ | $24.25 | $30.4 | +$6.15 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50¢ | $52 | $104 | +$52 | 58% 37196-26405 (63601) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $46.52 | $65.99 | +$19.47 | 57% 11587-8607 (20194) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 87.9¢ | $39.64 | $43.74 | +$4.1 | 66% 123770-63721 (187491) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $31.98 | — | -$31.98 | 12% 17863-132677 (150540) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $35.96 | $54.13 | +$18.16 | 55% 23466-18999 (42465) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $37.21 | $39.9 | +$2.69 | 46% 37659-44001 (81660) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $24.04 | $36.99 | +$12.95 | 65% 123539-66052 (189591) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $26.55 | $30 | +$3.45 | 56% 12049-9298 (21347) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74.3¢ | $35.98 | $48.39 | +$12.41 | 55% 43574-35987 (79561) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $16.81 | $17 | +$0.19 | 57% 9969-7479 (17448) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $4.93 | — | -$4.93 | 59% 61774-42703 (104477) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $12.34 | $12 | +$0.65 | 61% 93252-58615 (151867) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $15.53 | — | -$3.56 | 65% 20576-11237 (31813) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.2¢ | $7.11 | — | -$7.11 | 52% 88790-83234 (172024) |
Invested
$1,630.14
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.47
Record
56%
29153-23025 (52178)
Invested
$552.24
Value
$498.69
PnL
-$53.55
Record
56%
7316-5641 (12957)
Invested
$368.93
Value
$377.62
PnL
+$8.69
Record
49%
4812-4978 (9790)
Invested
$175.49
Value
$221.26
PnL
+$45.77
Record
56%
13313-10640 (23953)
Invested
$97.17
Value
$150.43
PnL
+$53.26
Record
55%
6967-5721 (12688)
Invested
$126.9
Value
$130
PnL
+$3.1
Record
67%
53016-26442 (79458)
Invested
$100.98
Value
$102
PnL
+$1.02
Record
93%
22133-1706 (23839)
Invested
$91.23
Value
$87.99
PnL
-$2.59
Record
60%
11768-7698 (19466)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$69.13
Value
$71.24
PnL
+$2.11
Record
55%
8221-6669 (14890)
Invested
$50.5
Value
—
PnL
-$50.5
Record
58%
50620-36754 (87374)
Invested
$54.45
Value
$30.4
PnL
-$24.05
Record
55%
17045-13693 (30738)
Both legs:
Invested
$52
Value
$104
PnL
+$52
Record
58%
37196-26405 (63601)
Invested
$46.52
Value
$65.99
PnL
+$19.47
Record
57%
11587-8607 (20194)
Invested
$39.64
Value
$43.74
PnL
+$4.1
Record
66%
123770-63721 (187491)
Invested
$31.98
Value
—
PnL
-$31.98
Record
12%
17863-132677 (150540)
Invested
$35.96
Value
$54.13
PnL
+$18.16
Record
55%
23466-18999 (42465)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$37.21
Value
$39.9
PnL
+$2.69
Record
46%
37659-44001 (81660)
Invested
$24.04
Value
$36.99
PnL
+$12.95
Record
65%
123539-66052 (189591)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$26.55
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.45
Record
56%
12049-9298 (21347)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$35.98
Value
$48.39
PnL
+$12.41
Record
55%
43574-35987 (79561)
Invested
$16.81
Value
$17
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
9969-7479 (17448)
Invested
$4.93
Value
—
PnL
-$4.93
Record
59%
61774-42703 (104477)
Invested
$12.34
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.65
Record
61%
93252-58615 (151867)
Invested
$15.53
Value
—
PnL
-$3.56
Record
65%
20576-11237 (31813)
Invested
$7.11
Value
—
PnL
-$7.11
Record
52%
88790-83234 (172024)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $1.6K
wzbbb
Down — $498.69
ply-pm0
Down — $377.62
GoodFallen
Down — $221.26
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $150.43
std0
Down — $130
hoodquant
Down — $102
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $87.99
machinelearned
Down — $71.24
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0