Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 71%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$109.26
Smart Money Signal
14 of 20 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 84.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.56 | 56% 7316-5641 (12957) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $369.46 | $377 | +$7.54 | 93% 22133-1706 (23839) |
ST std0 | Upavg 92¢ | $163.82 | $157.02 | -$6.8 | 67% 53016-26442 (79458) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 82.3¢ | $154.13 | $152 | -$1.99 | 60% 11768-7698 (19466) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.8¢ | $135.86 | $137.78 | +$1.92 | 55% 8221-6669 (14890) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $118.69 | $131.05 | +$12.36 | 56% 13313-10640 (23953) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.2¢ | $90.65 | $131.05 | +$40.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.9¢ | $28.04 | — | -$28.04 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $100.59 | $108.07 | +$7.48 | 49% 4812-4978 (9790) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 52.9¢ | $102.49 | — | -$102.49 | 58% 37196-26405 (63601) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $86.22 | $82.05 | -$4.17 | 56% 12049-9298 (21347) |
SI sir-upalotARB<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $57.37 | $50 | -$7.37 | 55% 23466-18999 (42465) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $50 | +$7.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.4¢ | $14.87 | — | -$14.87 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $58.34 | $78.86 | +$20.52 | 55% 6967-5721 (12688) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 78.8¢ | $40.05 | $50.85 | +$10.8 | 66% 123770-63721 (187491) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $51.6 | $60 | +$8.4 | 65% 123539-66052 (189591) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $33.8 | $40.42 | +$6.62 | 61% 93252-58615 (151867) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 21.2¢ | $66.06 | — | -$66.06 | 55% 17045-13693 (30738) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $5.88 | $6.76 | +$0.88 | 65% 3786-2049 (5835) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $2.52 | — | -$2.52 | 52% 88790-83234 (172024) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 12% 17863-132677 (150540) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.85 | — | -$0.85 | 46% 37659-44001 (81660) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19565-18744 (38309) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3603-2794 (6397) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $15.95 | — | +$2.63 | 65% 20576-11237 (31813) |
Invested
$1,194.55
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.56
Record
56%
7316-5641 (12957)
Invested
$369.46
Value
$377
PnL
+$7.54
Record
93%
22133-1706 (23839)
Invested
$163.82
Value
$157.02
PnL
-$6.8
Record
67%
53016-26442 (79458)
Invested
$154.13
Value
$152
PnL
-$1.99
Record
60%
11768-7698 (19466)
machinelearnedInvested
$135.86
Value
$137.78
PnL
+$1.92
Record
55%
8221-6669 (14890)
Invested
$118.69
Value
$131.05
PnL
+$12.36
Record
56%
13313-10640 (23953)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.59
Value
$108.07
PnL
+$7.48
Record
49%
4812-4978 (9790)
Invested
$102.49
Value
—
PnL
-$102.49
Record
58%
37196-26405 (63601)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$86.22
Value
$82.05
PnL
-$4.17
Record
56%
12049-9298 (21347)
Invested
$57.37
Value
$50
PnL
-$7.37
Record
55%
23466-18999 (42465)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.34
Value
$78.86
PnL
+$20.52
Record
55%
6967-5721 (12688)
Invested
$40.05
Value
$50.85
PnL
+$10.8
Record
66%
123770-63721 (187491)
Invested
$51.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$8.4
Record
65%
123539-66052 (189591)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$40.42
PnL
+$6.62
Record
61%
93252-58615 (151867)
Invested
$66.06
Value
—
PnL
-$66.06
Record
55%
17045-13693 (30738)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.88
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$0.88
Record
65%
3786-2049 (5835)
Invested
$2.52
Value
—
PnL
-$2.52
Record
52%
88790-83234 (172024)
Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
12%
17863-132677 (150540)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.85
Value
—
PnL
-$0.85
Record
46%
37659-44001 (81660)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19565-18744 (38309)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3603-2794 (6397)
Invested
$15.95
Value
—
PnL
+$2.63
Record
65%
20576-11237 (31813)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Up — $1.2K
hoodquant
Up — $377
std0
Up — $157.02
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $152
machinelearned
Up — $137.78
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $108.07
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $82.05
sir-upalot
ARBArbitrage — excluded