Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$6.12

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$784.9

Total Shares785

Combined PnL+$122.91

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares351

Combined PnL-$129.03

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Down	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$269.02	56% 3603-2794 (6397)
└ Up leg	Up	—	—	$-2.0K
└ Down leg	Down	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$2.3K
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$74.38	56% 13313-10640 (23953)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$560.37	—	-$560.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$621.94	$1.3K	+$634.74
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$839.37	$837.98	-$1.39	56% 7316-5641 (12957)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$226.64	—	-$226.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$612.73	$837.98	+$225.25
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.2¢	$531.15	$593.43	+$62.28	49% 4812-4978 (9790)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$526.83	$697.3	+$170.47	56% 12049-9298 (21347)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$333.53	$697.3	+$363.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$193.3	—	-$193.3
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$279.34	$398.91	+$119.57	55% 8221-6669 (14890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.3¢	$83.23	—	-$83.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$196.11	$398.91	+$202.8
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$485.01	$169.29	-$315.71	78% 9204-2669 (11873)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.4¢	$341.06	—	-$341.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$143.95	$169.29	+$25.34
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$272.57	$285.79	+$13.22	67% 53016-26442 (79458)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$106.94	—	-$106.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$165.63	$285.79	+$120.16
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$326.01	$381.45	+$55.44	55% 6967-5721 (12688)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.5¢	$257.46	$381.45	+$124
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$68.55	—	-$68.55
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$231.13	$194.21	-$36.92	57% 11587-8607 (20194)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$112.69	—	-$112.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$118.44	$194.21	+$75.77
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$163.59	$134.19	-$29.4	60% 11768-7698 (19466)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$97.49	—	-$97.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$66.11	$134.19	+$68.09
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$155.73	$149.38	-$6.35	65% 123539-66052 (189591)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.7¢	$134.02	$149.38	+$15.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.9¢	$21.71	—	-$21.71
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$102.55	$104.72	+$2.17	55% 23466-18999 (42465)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$43.01	—	-$43.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$59.54	$104.72	+$45.18
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$90.17	—	-$90.17	58% 37196-26405 (63601)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$85.44	$94.13	+$8.69	55% 17045-13693 (30738)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$61.34	$94.13	+$32.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$24.1	—	-$24.1
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$3	—	-$3	57% 9969-7479 (17448)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 75¢	$49.04	$60.66	+$11.62	66% 123770-63721 (187491)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$28.03	$56.31	+$28.28	58% 50620-36754 (87374)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$16.46	—	-$16.46	51% 16865-16476 (33341)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 58¢	$18.92	$19.5	+$1.29	61% 93252-58615 (151867)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$11.57	$20.44	+$8.87	52% 88790-83234 (172024)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6	51% 19565-18744 (38309)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$12.8	—	-$12.8	65% 20576-11237 (31813)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$9.58	$11.81	+$2.23	65% 3786-2049 (5835)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.99	$11.39	+$7.4	46% 37659-44001 (81660)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,216.35

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$269.02

Record

56%

3603-2794 (6397)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,182.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$74.38

Record

56%

13313-10640 (23953)

Both legs:

Up$560.3748.7¢-$560.37

Down$621.9449.5¢+$634.74

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$839.37

Value

$837.98

PnL

-$1.39

Record

56%

7316-5641 (12957)

Both legs:

Up$226.6431¢-$226.64

Down$612.7373.1¢+$225.25

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$531.15

Value

$593.43

PnL

+$62.28

Record

49%

4812-4978 (9790)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$526.83

Value

$697.3

PnL

+$170.47

Record

56%

12049-9298 (21347)

Both legs:

Down$333.5347.8¢+$363.77

Up$193.344¢-$193.3

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.34

Value

$398.91

PnL

+$119.57

Record

55%

8221-6669 (14890)

Both legs:

Up$83.2313.3¢-$83.23

Down$196.1149.2¢+$202.8

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$485.01

Value

$169.29

PnL

-$315.71

Record

78%

9204-2669 (11873)

Both legs:

Up$341.0673.4¢-$341.06

Down$143.9585¢+$25.34

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$272.57

Value

$285.79

PnL

+$13.22

Record

67%

53016-26442 (79458)

Both legs:

Up$106.9438.7¢-$106.94

Down$165.6358¢+$120.16

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$326.01

Value

$381.45

PnL

+$55.44

Record

55%

6967-5721 (12688)

Both legs:

Down$257.4667.5¢+$124

Up$68.5539.9¢-$68.55

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.13

Value

$194.21

PnL

-$36.92

Record

57%

11587-8607 (20194)

Both legs:

Up$112.6942.6¢-$112.69

Down$118.4461¢+$75.77

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$163.59

Value

$134.19

PnL

-$29.4

Record

60%

11768-7698 (19466)

Both legs:

Up$97.4955.5¢-$97.49

Down$66.1149.3¢+$68.09

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.73

Value

$149.38

PnL

-$6.35

Record

65%

123539-66052 (189591)

Both legs:

Down$134.0289.7¢+$15.36

Up$21.7124.9¢-$21.71

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.55

Value

$104.72

PnL

+$2.17

Record

55%

23466-18999 (42465)

Both legs:

Up$43.0140.3¢-$43.01

Down$59.5456.9¢+$45.18

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$90.17

Value

—

PnL

-$90.17

Record

58%

37196-26405 (63601)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.44

Value

$94.13

PnL

+$8.69

Record

55%

17045-13693 (30738)

Both legs:

Down$61.3465.2¢+$32.79

Up$24.140.3¢-$24.1

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

57%

9969-7479 (17448)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$49.04

Value

$60.66

PnL

+$11.62

Record

66%

123770-63721 (187491)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$28.03

Value

$56.31

PnL

+$28.28

Record

58%

50620-36754 (87374)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$16.46

Value

—

PnL

-$16.46

Record

51%

16865-16476 (33341)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.92

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$1.29

Record

61%

93252-58615 (151867)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.57

Value

$20.44

PnL

+$8.87

Record

52%

88790-83234 (172024)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

51%

19565-18744 (38309)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

—

PnL

-$12.8

Record

65%

20576-11237 (31813)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$9.58

Value

$11.81

PnL

+$2.23

Record

65%

3786-2049 (5835)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$3.99

Value

$11.39

PnL

+$7.4

Record

46%

37659-44001 (81660)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xad0a2969...8d2bed

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793100300

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $593.43

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded