Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$68.29

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 27 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,346

Combined PnL+$122.05

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$53.76

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$5.93	59% 61770-42691 (104461)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 80.5¢	$493.47	$530.35	+$36.88	56% 13881-10867 (24748)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 91.5¢	$471.74	$410	-$61.74	56% 7307-5633 (12940)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 84.3¢	$273.64	$324.59	+$50.95	55% 17023-13675 (30698)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$250.18	$203.9	-$46.28	54% 15053-12616 (27669)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.6¢	$160.31	$203.9	+$43.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.9¢	$89.87	—	-$89.87
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 99¢	$197.43	$199.42	+$1.99	49% 611-628 (1239)
Atomforge	Downavg 87.5¢	$171.12	$195.58	+$24.46	65% 3780-2049 (5829)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 11¢	$100.6	$35	-$65.6	55% 8214-6663 (14877)
└ Up leg	Upavg 11¢	$71.25	—	-$71.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.9¢	$29.35	$35	+$5.65
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 81.7¢	$114.11	$114.58	+$0.47	68% 98383-46651 (145034)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.9¢	$115.83	$114.18	-$1.65	49% 4805-4972 (9777)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 88.9¢	$73.91	$81.35	+$8.24	55% 6959-5716 (12675)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 99¢	$76.3	$70	-$6.3	67% 53006-26439 (79445)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$69.3	$65	-$4.3	56% 13302-10639 (23941)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 87.4¢	$63.94	$63.09	-$0.86	60% 11758-7695 (19453)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 89¢	$50.95	$39.04	-$11.91	54% 10045-8522 (18567)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 49.5¢	$49.53	$100.06	+$50.53	58% 50611-36747 (87358)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 17.8¢	$41	—	-$41	56% 12044-9290 (21334)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$20.14	$25.55	+$5.41	66% 123735-63707 (187442)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 66¢	$15.11	$22.89	+$7.78	51% 16862-16473 (33335)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 86¢	$19.5	$22.67	+$3.17	57% 9962-7474 (17436)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$13.86	—	-$13.86	57% 11583-8602 (20185)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 75¢	$5	$6.66	+$1.67	66% 111116-57341 (168457)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 78¢	$6.03	$6	+$0.24	61% 93231-58595 (151826)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 67¢	$7.91	$11.8	+$3.89	46% 37648-43987 (81635)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5.7	$10	+$4.3	12% 17858-132669 (150527)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$5,921.66

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$5.93

Record

59%

61770-42691 (104461)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$493.47

Value

$530.35

PnL

+$36.88

Record

56%

13881-10867 (24748)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$471.74

Value

$410

PnL

-$61.74

Record

56%

7307-5633 (12940)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$273.64

Value

$324.59

PnL

+$50.95

Record

55%

17023-13675 (30698)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$250.18

Value

$203.9

PnL

-$46.28

Record

54%

15053-12616 (27669)

Both legs:

Down$160.3178.6¢+$43.59

Up$89.8720.9¢-$89.87

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$197.43

Value

$199.42

PnL

+$1.99

Record

49%

611-628 (1239)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$171.12

Value

$195.58

PnL

+$24.46

Record

65%

3780-2049 (5829)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$100.6

Value

$35

PnL

-$65.6

Record

55%

8214-6663 (14877)

Both legs:

Up$71.2511¢-$71.25

Down$29.3583.9¢+$5.65

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$114.11

Value

$114.58

PnL

+$0.47

Record

68%

98383-46651 (145034)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$115.83

Value

$114.18

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

4805-4972 (9777)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$73.91

Value

$81.35

PnL

+$8.24

Record

55%

6959-5716 (12675)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$76.3

Value

$70

PnL

-$6.3

Record

67%

53006-26439 (79445)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$69.3

Value

$65

PnL

-$4.3

Record

56%

13302-10639 (23941)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$63.94

Value

$63.09

PnL

-$0.86

Record

60%

11758-7695 (19453)

thesidehustle<$100

Down

Invested

$50.95

Value

$39.04

PnL

-$11.91

Record

54%

10045-8522 (18567)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$49.53

Value

$100.06

PnL

+$50.53

Record

58%

50611-36747 (87358)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$41

Value

—

PnL

-$41

Record

56%

12044-9290 (21334)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$20.14

Value

$25.55

PnL

+$5.41

Record

66%

123735-63707 (187442)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$15.11

Value

$22.89

PnL

+$7.78

Record

51%

16862-16473 (33335)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$22.67

PnL

+$3.17

Record

57%

9962-7474 (17436)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

—

PnL

-$13.86

Record

57%

11583-8602 (20185)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$1.67

Record

66%

111116-57341 (168457)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$6.03

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

61%

93231-58595 (151826)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$7.91

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$3.89

Record

46%

37648-43987 (81635)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$5.7

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.3

Record

12%

17858-132669 (150527)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 27 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5b1c6787...fc04c0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793093100

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $5.9K

+$5.93

CrouchPredictions

Down — $530.35

+$36.88

wzbbb

Down — $410

-$61.74

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $324.59

+$50.95

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$46.28

seeeeeeb

Down — $199.42

+$1.99

Atomforge

Down — $195.58

+$24.46

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$65.6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $114.58

+$0.47

ply-pm0

Down — $114.18

-$1.65

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