Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 27 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,609

Combined PnL+$374.53

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,987

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 46.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$187.75	54% 15053-12616 (27669)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 56.2¢	$699.83	$629.46	-$70.36	56% 13302-10639 (23941)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 44.5¢	$764.59	—	-$764.59	56% 13881-10867 (24748)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$514.12	$380.29	-$133.83	56% 7307-5633 (12940)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$179.57	$380.29	+$200.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$334.56	—	-$334.56
FairValueMachine	Downavg 64.8¢	$417.49	$412.32	-$5.17	56% 12044-9290 (21334)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 54.1¢	$344.69	$348.46	+$3.77	49% 4805-4972 (9777)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 39.7¢	$257.09	$301.2	+$44.12	54% 10045-8522 (18567)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$113	$301.2	+$188.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$144.08	—	-$144.08
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 34.2¢	$157.98	$303.04	+$145.06	57% 11583-8602 (20185)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 67.8¢	$252.74	$295.9	+$43.16	55% 6959-5716 (12675)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 33.4¢	$283.23	—	-$282.28	60% 11758-7695 (19453)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 35.6¢	$321.28	—	-$321.28	55% 8214-6663 (14877)
Atomforge	Downavg 68.5¢	$247.66	$291.16	+$43.5	65% 3780-2049 (5829)
ST std0	Downavg 39.6¢	$185.92	$238.44	+$52.52	67% 53006-26439 (79445)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 48.1¢	$214.11	—	-$214.11	58% 37186-26392 (63578)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$166.31	$146.25	-$20.06	68% 98383-46651 (145034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.4¢	$97.19	—	-$97.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$69.12	$146.25	+$77.13
AS asdaefef	Downavg 76.6¢	$107.47	$105.61	-$1.86	66% 123735-63707 (187442)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$91.82	$85.8	-$6.02	55% 23457-18996 (42453)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 95.3¢	$81.97	$73.53	-$8.44	65% 123512-66036 (189548)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 90.1¢	$75.76	$71.36	-$2.88	61% 93231-58595 (151826)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$57.97	$62.8	+$4.83	63% 50605-29885 (80490)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$58.54	—	-$58.54	66% 111116-57341 (168457)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 92¢	$50.9	$39	-$11.9	55% 43553-35965 (79518)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$65.08	—	-$65.08	55% 17023-13675 (30698)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$36.87	$31.55	+$0.57	65% 20534-11219 (31753)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$71.99	—	-$71.99	57% 9962-7474 (17436)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,433.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$187.75

Record

54%

15053-12616 (27669)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$699.83

Value

$629.46

PnL

-$70.36

Record

56%

13302-10639 (23941)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$764.59

Value

—

PnL

-$764.59

Record

56%

13881-10867 (24748)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$514.12

Value

$380.29

PnL

-$133.83

Record

56%

7307-5633 (12940)

Both legs:

Down$179.5747.2¢+$200.72

Up$334.5655.2¢-$334.56

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$417.49

Value

$412.32

PnL

-$5.17

Record

56%

12044-9290 (21334)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$344.69

Value

$348.46

PnL

+$3.77

Record

49%

4805-4972 (9777)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$257.09

Value

$301.2

PnL

+$44.12

Record

54%

10045-8522 (18567)

Both legs:

Down$11337.5¢+$188.2

Up$144.0839.7¢-$144.08

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$157.98

Value

$303.04

PnL

+$145.06

Record

57%

11583-8602 (20185)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$252.74

Value

$295.9

PnL

+$43.16

Record

55%

6959-5716 (12675)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$283.23

Value

—

PnL

-$282.28

Record

60%

11758-7695 (19453)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$321.28

Value

—

PnL

-$321.28

Record

55%

8214-6663 (14877)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$247.66

Value

$291.16

PnL

+$43.5

Record

65%

3780-2049 (5829)

std0

Down

Invested

$185.92

Value

$238.44

PnL

+$52.52

Record

67%

53006-26439 (79445)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$214.11

Value

—

PnL

-$214.11

Record

58%

37186-26392 (63578)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$166.31

Value

$146.25

PnL

-$20.06

Record

68%

98383-46651 (145034)

Both legs:

Up$97.1977.4¢-$97.19

Down$69.1247.3¢+$77.13

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$107.47

Value

$105.61

PnL

-$1.86

Record

66%

123735-63707 (187442)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$91.82

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$6.02

Record

55%

23457-18996 (42453)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$81.97

Value

$73.53

PnL

-$8.44

Record

65%

123512-66036 (189548)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$75.76

Value

$71.36

PnL

-$2.88

Record

61%

93231-58595 (151826)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$57.97

Value

$62.8

PnL

+$4.83

Record

63%

50605-29885 (80490)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$58.54

Value

—

PnL

-$58.54

Record

66%

111116-57341 (168457)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$50.9

Value

$39

PnL

-$11.9

Record

55%

43553-35965 (79518)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$65.08

Value

—

PnL

-$65.08

Record

55%

17023-13675 (30698)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$36.87

Value

$31.55

PnL

+$0.57

Record

65%

20534-11219 (31753)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$71.99

Value

—

PnL

-$71.99

Record

57%

9962-7474 (17436)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 27 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfca12bf7...a3a157

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793092800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.6K

+$187.75

GoodFallen

Down — $629.46

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Down — $412.32

-$5.17

ply-pm0

Down — $348.46

+$3.77

thesidehustle

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$44.12

EZTRADENL2

Down — $303.04

+$145.06

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $295.9

+$43.16

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

CTR

Up — $0

-$282.28

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