Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$166.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,829

Combined PnL+$209.27

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares461

Combined PnL-$42.33

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 41.1¢	$682.34	$832.58	+$150.24	56% 13881-10867 (24748)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$340.05	—	-$340.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$342.29	$832.58	+$490.29
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.11	56% 29153-23025 (52178)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 43.3¢	$815.52	$796.37	-$19.15	54% 15053-12616 (27669)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$435.58	—	-$435.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$379.94	$796.37	+$416.43
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$543.9	$682.45	+$138.55	56% 7307-5633 (12940)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.5¢	$460.98	$682.45	+$221.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$82.92	—	-$82.92
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$323.21	$254.65	-$68.56	56% 13302-10639 (23941)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$183.54	—	-$183.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$139.67	$254.65	+$114.99
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 38.4¢	$237.64	$235.45	-$2.2	68% 98383-46651 (145034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$118.95	—	-$118.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$118.69	$235.45	+$116.76
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 40.3¢	$180.16	$371.46	+$191.3	55% 8214-6663 (14877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$149.87	$371.46	+$221.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.9¢	$30.29	—	-$30.29
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$153.77	$205.29	+$51.52	54% 10045-8522 (18567)
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.7¢	$20.01	—	-$20.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$133.76	$205.29	+$71.53
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$175.71	$172.49	-$3.22	49% 4805-4972 (9777)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$72.57	—	-$72.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$103.14	$172.49	+$69.35
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$134.45	$87.64	-$46.81	60% 11758-7695 (19453)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.8¢	$70.28	—	-$70.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$64.17	$87.64	+$23.47
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.9¢	$11.5	—	-$11.5	46% 37648-43987 (81635)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$161.23	$143.93	-$17.3	67% 53006-26439 (79445)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.9¢	$117.91	$143.93	+$26.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.6¢	$43.31	—	-$43.31
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 52¢	$137.69	$264.55	+$126.86	57% 11583-8602 (20185)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 44.4¢	$94.83	$73.29	-$21.54	56% 12044-9290 (21334)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$62.37	—	-$62.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$32.46	$73.29	+$40.83
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 77.4¢	$136.16	$166.66	+$30.49	55% 6959-5716 (12675)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$99.99	$94.82	-$5.17	66% 123735-63707 (187442)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.8¢	$127.08	$130	+$2.92	93% 22113-1706 (23819)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$34.95	$51.2	+$16.25	55% 17023-13675 (30698)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$54.73	$54.62	+$2.17	61% 93231-58595 (151826)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97¢	$8.55	$7	-$1.55	52% 88772-83208 (171980)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$5.5	—	-$5.5	55% 23457-18996 (42453)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$23.53	—	-$23.53	58% 50611-36747 (87358)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 4.2¢	$3.1	—	+$10.1	51% 19552-18740 (38292)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 81¢	$26.93	$33.12	+$6.19	65% 123512-66036 (189548)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$7.65	—	-$7.65	66% 111116-57341 (168457)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$682.34

Value

$832.58

PnL

+$150.24

Record

56%

13881-10867 (24748)

Both legs:

Up$340.0524¢-$340.05

Down$342.2941.1¢+$490.29

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,990.68

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.11

Record

56%

29153-23025 (52178)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$815.52

Value

$796.37

PnL

-$19.15

Record

54%

15053-12616 (27669)

Both legs:

Up$435.5843.3¢-$435.58

Down$379.9447.7¢+$416.43

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$543.9

Value

$682.45

PnL

+$138.55

Record

56%

7307-5633 (12940)

Both legs:

Down$460.9867.5¢+$221.47

Up$82.9247¢-$82.92

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$323.21

Value

$254.65

PnL

-$68.56

Record

56%

13302-10639 (23941)

Both legs:

Up$183.5443.8¢-$183.54

Down$139.6754.8¢+$114.99

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$237.64

Value

$235.45

PnL

-$2.2

Record

68%

98383-46651 (145034)

Both legs:

Up$118.9538.4¢-$118.95

Down$118.6950.4¢+$116.76

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180.16

Value

$371.46

PnL

+$191.3

Record

55%

8214-6663 (14877)

Both legs:

Down$149.8740.3¢+$221.59

Up$30.2921.9¢-$30.29

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.77

Value

$205.29

PnL

+$51.52

Record

54%

10045-8522 (18567)

Both legs:

Up$20.016.7¢-$20.01

Down$133.7665.2¢+$71.53

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$175.71

Value

$172.49

PnL

-$3.22

Record

49%

4805-4972 (9777)

Both legs:

Up$72.5730.3¢-$72.57

Down$103.1459.8¢+$69.35

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$134.45

Value

$87.64

PnL

-$46.81

Record

60%

11758-7695 (19453)

Both legs:

Up$70.2830.8¢-$70.28

Down$64.1773.2¢+$23.47

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

—

PnL

-$11.5

Record

46%

37648-43987 (81635)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.23

Value

$143.93

PnL

-$17.3

Record

67%

53006-26439 (79445)

Both legs:

Down$117.9181.9¢+$26.02

Up$43.3133.6¢-$43.31

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$137.69

Value

$264.55

PnL

+$126.86

Record

57%

11583-8602 (20185)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$94.83

Value

$73.29

PnL

-$21.54

Record

56%

12044-9290 (21334)

Both legs:

Up$62.3744.4¢-$62.37

Down$32.4644.3¢+$40.83

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$136.16

Value

$166.66

PnL

+$30.49

Record

55%

6959-5716 (12675)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$99.99

Value

$94.82

PnL

-$5.17

Record

66%

123735-63707 (187442)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$127.08

Value

$130

PnL

+$2.92

Record

93%

22113-1706 (23819)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$34.95

Value

$51.2

PnL

+$16.25

Record

55%

17023-13675 (30698)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$54.73

Value

$54.62

PnL

+$2.17

Record

61%

93231-58595 (151826)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$8.55

Value

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

88772-83208 (171980)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

—

PnL

-$5.5

Record

55%

23457-18996 (42453)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$23.53

Value

—

PnL

-$23.53

Record

58%

50611-36747 (87358)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

—

PnL

+$10.1

Record

51%

19552-18740 (38292)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$26.93

Value

$33.12

PnL

+$6.19

Record

65%

123512-66036 (189548)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

—

PnL

-$7.65

Record

66%

111116-57341 (168457)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbc0f88e4...4778a5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793091600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$150.24

THG.

Down — $2.0K

+$20.11

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$46.81

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