Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$76.98

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,655

Combined PnL+$174.18

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$251.16

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$2.95	59% 61765-42673 (104438)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$24.97	56% 7295-5625 (12920)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$740.48	$747.96	+$7.48	74% 101887-36252 (138139)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.6¢	$481.85	$521.54	+$39.69	56% 13876-10857 (24733)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$261.94	$286.93	+$24.99	54% 15045-12613 (27658)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$194.98	$286.93	+$91.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$66.96	—	-$66.96
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 75.9¢	$159.42	$165.47	+$6.05	68% 98347-46616 (144963)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 86.2¢	$159.16	$155.63	-$3.53	65% 123475-66020 (189495)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$78.67	$94.39	+$15.72	67% 53004-26437 (79441)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$83.44	$93	+$9.56	55% 6952-5712 (12664)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$61.9	$75.3	+$13.39	54% 10027-8513 (18540)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$85.07	$82	-$3.07	49% 4800-4966 (9766)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$59.7	$75.13	+$15.43	55% 16996-13641 (30637)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 72¢	$66.17	$68.73	+$3.83	60% 11750-7692 (19442)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$57.94	$40.83	-$17.11	66% 111093-57313 (168406)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.3¢	$29.1	$40.83	+$11.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 25¢	$28.85	—	-$28.85
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$37.11	$37.67	+$0.56	56% 13294-10636 (23930)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 84¢	$36.88	$39.8	+$2.92	55% 8209-6657 (14866)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$33.52	$43.24	+$9.72	66% 123706-63693 (187399)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 79.8¢	$33.21	$38.48	+$6.03	61% 93204-58582 (151786)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$22.24	$29.83	+$7.6	65% 20472-11181 (31653)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$25.51	$33.02	+$7.51	55% 43523-35934 (79457)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 77¢	$38.5	$50	+$11.5	55% 23450-18994 (42444)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$20.37	—	-$20.37	58% 59890-43717 (103607)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89¢	$18.01	$13.88	-$4.13	52% 88749-83182 (171931)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$7.21	—	-$7.21	56% 12036-9287 (21323)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$1.02	$1.03	+$0.01	93% 22091-1705 (23796)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$2,947.28

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$2.95

Record

59%

61765-42673 (104438)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$2,314.02

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$24.97

Record

56%

7295-5625 (12920)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$740.48

Value

$747.96

PnL

+$7.48

Record

74%

101887-36252 (138139)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$481.85

Value

$521.54

PnL

+$39.69

Record

56%

13876-10857 (24733)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$261.94

Value

$286.93

PnL

+$24.99

Record

54%

15045-12613 (27658)

Both legs:

Down$194.9868¢+$91.95

Up$66.9627.6¢-$66.96

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$159.42

Value

$165.47

PnL

+$6.05

Record

68%

98347-46616 (144963)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$159.16

Value

$155.63

PnL

-$3.53

Record

65%

123475-66020 (189495)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$78.67

Value

$94.39

PnL

+$15.72

Record

67%

53004-26437 (79441)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$83.44

Value

$93

PnL

+$9.56

Record

55%

6952-5712 (12664)

thesidehustle<$100

Down

Invested

$61.9

Value

$75.3

PnL

+$13.39

Record

54%

10027-8513 (18540)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$85.07

Value

$82

PnL

-$3.07

Record

49%

4800-4966 (9766)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$59.7

Value

$75.13

PnL

+$15.43

Record

55%

16996-13641 (30637)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$66.17

Value

$68.73

PnL

+$3.83

Record

60%

11750-7692 (19442)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$57.94

Value

$40.83

PnL

-$17.11

Record

66%

111093-57313 (168406)

Both legs:

Down$29.171.3¢+$11.73

Up$28.8525¢-$28.85

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$37.11

Value

$37.67

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

13294-10636 (23930)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$36.88

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$2.92

Record

55%

8209-6657 (14866)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$33.52

Value

$43.24

PnL

+$9.72

Record

66%

123706-63693 (187399)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$33.21

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$6.03

Record

61%

93204-58582 (151786)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$22.24

Value

$29.83

PnL

+$7.6

Record

65%

20472-11181 (31653)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$25.51

Value

$33.02

PnL

+$7.51

Record

55%

43523-35934 (79457)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$38.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$11.5

Record

55%

23450-18994 (42444)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$20.37

Value

—

PnL

-$20.37

Record

58%

59890-43717 (103607)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$18.01

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$4.13

Record

52%

88749-83182 (171931)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$7.21

Value

—

PnL

-$7.21

Record

56%

12036-9287 (21323)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

93%

22091-1705 (23796)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x96c5b599...ccbce3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793091000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

+$2.95

wzbbb

Down — $2.3K

+$24.97

BoneOhio

Down — $747.96

+$7.48

CrouchPredictions

Down — $521.54

+$39.69

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$24.99

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $165.47

+$6.05

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $155.63

-$3.53

std0

Down — $94.39

+$15.72

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $93

+$9.56

thesidehustle

Down — $75.3

+$13.39

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