Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,703

Combined PnL+$136.31

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,459

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$8.87	56% 7295-5625 (12920)
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR	Downavg 50.5¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	45% 58-71 (129)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$526.22	$522.16	-$4.06	54% 15045-12613 (27658)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$318.88	$522.16	+$203.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$207.34	—	-$207.34
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 85.6¢	$418.03	$430.15	+$12.12	68% 98347-46616 (144963)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 21.5¢	$377.71	$312.94	-$64.77	56% 13876-10857 (24733)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$178.32	$312.94	+$134.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.5¢	$199.39	—	-$199.39
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$157.25	$160.48	+$3.23	56% 13294-10636 (23930)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$94.28	$160.48	+$66.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$62.96	—	-$62.96
MayorMamdani	Upavg 92.7¢	$134.81	$145.47	+$10.66	55% 43523-35934 (79457)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.6¢	$112.13	$119.19	+$7.06	49% 4800-4966 (9766)
ST std0	Upavg 96¢	$117.58	$100	-$17.58	67% 53004-26437 (79441)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 80¢	$115.62	$144.52	+$28.9	58% 59890-43717 (103607)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 62.7¢	$82.72	$132	+$49.28	60% 11750-7692 (19442)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 94¢	$86.86	$50	-$36.86	55% 8209-6657 (14866)
└ Up leg	Upavg 94¢	$47	$50	+$3
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.1¢	$39.86	—	-$39.86
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$60.29	—	-$60.29	58% 50610-36742 (87352)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$63.5	$100	+$36.5	55% 23450-18994 (42444)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 96¢	$62.6	$60	-$2.6	54% 10027-8513 (18540)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$44.84	$58.61	+$13.77	66% 123706-63693 (187399)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$24.17	—	-$24.17	56% 12036-9287 (21323)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$13.51	—	-$13.51	66% 111093-57313 (168406)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$2.65	—	-$2.65	46% 37642-43970 (81612)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 56¢	$5.75	$10.26	+$4.51	55% 16996-13641 (30637)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$2.38	—	-$2.38	52% 88749-83182 (171931)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 81¢	$4.1	$5.06	+$0.96	61% 93204-58582 (151786)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 67¢	$3.25	$4.85	+$1.6	55% 6952-5712 (12664)
heyboy800CTR	Downavg 37.1¢	$170	—	-$147.08	62% 858-537 (1395)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3599-2787 (6386)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,401.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$8.87

Record

56%

7295-5625 (12920)

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR

Down

Invested

$1,079.94

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

45%

58-71 (129)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$526.22

Value

$522.16

PnL

-$4.06

Record

54%

15045-12613 (27658)

Both legs:

Up$318.8861.1¢+$203.28

Down$207.3440.8¢-$207.34

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$418.03

Value

$430.15

PnL

+$12.12

Record

68%

98347-46616 (144963)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$377.71

Value

$312.94

PnL

-$64.77

Record

56%

13876-10857 (24733)

Both legs:

Up$178.3257¢+$134.62

Down$199.3921.5¢-$199.39

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$157.25

Value

$160.48

PnL

+$3.23

Record

56%

13294-10636 (23930)

Both legs:

Up$94.2858.8¢+$66.2

Down$62.9638.2¢-$62.96

MayorMamdani

Invested

$134.81

Value

$145.47

PnL

+$10.66

Record

55%

43523-35934 (79457)

ply-pm0

Invested

$112.13

Value

$119.19

PnL

+$7.06

Record

49%

4800-4966 (9766)

std0

Invested

$117.58

Value

$100

PnL

-$17.58

Record

67%

53004-26437 (79441)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$115.62

Value

$144.52

PnL

+$28.9

Record

58%

59890-43717 (103607)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$82.72

Value

$132

PnL

+$49.28

Record

60%

11750-7692 (19442)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$86.86

Value

$50

PnL

-$36.86

Record

55%

8209-6657 (14866)

Both legs:

Up$4794¢+$3

Down$39.8611.1¢-$39.86

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.29

Value

—

PnL

-$60.29

Record

58%

50610-36742 (87352)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$63.5

Value

$100

PnL

+$36.5

Record

55%

23450-18994 (42444)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$62.6

Value

$60

PnL

-$2.6

Record

54%

10027-8513 (18540)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$44.84

Value

$58.61

PnL

+$13.77

Record

66%

123706-63693 (187399)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.17

Value

—

PnL

-$24.17

Record

56%

12036-9287 (21323)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.51

Value

—

PnL

-$13.51

Record

66%

111093-57313 (168406)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

—

PnL

-$2.65

Record

46%

37642-43970 (81612)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$10.26

PnL

+$4.51

Record

55%

16996-13641 (30637)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.38

Value

—

PnL

-$2.38

Record

52%

88749-83182 (171931)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.96

Record

61%

93204-58582 (151786)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$1.6

Record

55%

6952-5712 (12664)

heyboy800CTR

Down

Invested

$170

Value

—

PnL

-$147.08

Record

62%

858-537 (1395)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3599-2787 (6386)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x50496509...1e0a05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793090700

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $1.4K

-$8.87

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.1K

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.06

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $430.15

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Up — $145.47

+$10.66

ply-pm0

Up — $119.19

+$7.06

std0

Up — $100

-$17.58

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $144.52

+$28.9

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