Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$123.45

Smart Money Signal

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,044

Combined PnL+$206.37

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares886

Combined PnL-$329.83

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 91.4¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$111.73	56% 7295-5625 (12920)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.47	54% 15045-12613 (27658)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$651.67	$1.2K	+$583.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$565.51	—	-$565.51
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 31.9¢	$621.34	$474.45	-$146.89	56% 13876-10857 (24733)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.9¢	$359.27	—	-$359.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$262.06	$474.45	+$212.39
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$497.43	$442.21	-$55.22	68% 98347-46616 (144963)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.3¢	$323.99	$442.21	+$118.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.6¢	$173.44	—	-$173.44
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$412.91	$460.32	+$47.41	56% 13294-10636 (23930)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$261.21	$460.32	+$199.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$151.69	—	-$151.69
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 24.9¢	$147.63	—	-$147.63	55% 8209-6657 (14866)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$197.11	$125.19	-$71.92	56% 12036-9287 (21323)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$133.89	—	-$133.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$63.22	$125.19	+$61.97
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$158.16	$152.39	-$5.77	60% 11750-7692 (19442)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.1¢	$112.9	$152.39	+$39.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$45.26	—	-$45.26
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$115.8	$137.59	+$21.79	54% 10027-8513 (18540)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$75.79	$137.59	+$61.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.5¢	$40.01	—	-$40.01
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$129.75	$181.68	+$51.93	55% 6952-5712 (12664)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$112.34	$181.68	+$69.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$17.4	—	-$17.4
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$142.08	$102	-$40.08	49% 4800-4966 (9766)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$77.15	—	-$77.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$64.93	$102	+$37.07
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$152.77	$119.46	-$33.32	67% 53004-26437 (79441)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.8¢	$82.18	$119.46	+$37.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$70.59	—	-$70.59
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$5.31	—	-$5.31	46% 37642-43970 (81612)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 93.1¢	$99.17	$86.82	-$12.35	66% 123706-63693 (187399)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 78.1¢	$65.54	$63.2	-$2.34	66% 111093-57313 (168406)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$51.36	$73.85	+$22.49	57% 9956-7469 (17425)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 57.1¢	$65.21	$108.68	+$43.46	55% 16996-13641 (30637)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 65¢	$39.6	$60.92	+$21.32	65% 123475-66020 (189495)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$17.08	—	-$17.08	65% 20472-11181 (31653)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 61¢	$14.37	—	-$14.37	55% 43523-35934 (79457)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$1.28	—	-$1.28	52% 88749-83182 (171931)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 53¢	$15.9	$30	+$14.1	51% 19546-18734 (38280)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$2.16	—	-$2.16	55% 23450-18994 (42444)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$5.13	$10.35	+$5.22	65% 3778-2045 (5823)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 83¢	$8.29	$9.99	+$1.7	64% 39528-22542 (62070)

wzbbb

Invested

$2,487.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$111.73

Record

56%

7295-5625 (12920)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,217.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.47

Record

54%

15045-12613 (27658)

Both legs:

Up$651.6752.7¢+$583.98

Down$565.5155.4¢-$565.51

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$621.34

Value

$474.45

PnL

-$146.89

Record

56%

13876-10857 (24733)

Both legs:

Down$359.2731.9¢-$359.27

Up$262.0655.2¢+$212.39

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$497.43

Value

$442.21

PnL

-$55.22

Record

68%

98347-46616 (144963)

Both legs:

Up$323.9973.3¢+$118.22

Down$173.4432.6¢-$173.44

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$412.91

Value

$460.32

PnL

+$47.41

Record

56%

13294-10636 (23930)

Both legs:

Up$261.2156.7¢+$199.11

Down$151.6947.9¢-$151.69

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$147.63

Value

—

PnL

-$147.63

Record

55%

8209-6657 (14866)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$197.11

Value

$125.19

PnL

-$71.92

Record

56%

12036-9287 (21323)

Both legs:

Down$133.8945.4¢-$133.89

Up$63.2250.5¢+$61.97

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$158.16

Value

$152.39

PnL

-$5.77

Record

60%

11750-7692 (19442)

Both legs:

Up$112.974.1¢+$39.49

Down$45.2629.7¢-$45.26

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$115.8

Value

$137.59

PnL

+$21.79

Record

54%

10027-8513 (18540)

Both legs:

Up$75.7955.1¢+$61.8

Down$40.0123.5¢-$40.01

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$129.75

Value

$181.68

PnL

+$51.93

Record

55%

6952-5712 (12664)

Both legs:

Up$112.3461.8¢+$69.34

Down$17.425¢-$17.4

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$142.08

Value

$102

PnL

-$40.08

Record

49%

4800-4966 (9766)

Both legs:

Down$77.1542.5¢-$77.15

Up$64.9363.7¢+$37.07

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$152.77

Value

$119.46

PnL

-$33.32

Record

67%

53004-26437 (79441)

Both legs:

Up$82.1868.8¢+$37.28

Down$70.5946.8¢-$70.59

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.31

Value

—

PnL

-$5.31

Record

46%

37642-43970 (81612)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$99.17

Value

$86.82

PnL

-$12.35

Record

66%

123706-63693 (187399)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$65.54

Value

$63.2

PnL

-$2.34

Record

66%

111093-57313 (168406)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$51.36

Value

$73.85

PnL

+$22.49

Record

57%

9956-7469 (17425)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$65.21

Value

$108.68

PnL

+$43.46

Record

55%

16996-13641 (30637)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

$60.92

PnL

+$21.32

Record

65%

123475-66020 (189495)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.08

Value

—

PnL

-$17.08

Record

65%

20472-11181 (31653)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.37

Value

—

PnL

-$14.37

Record

55%

43523-35934 (79457)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.28

Value

—

PnL

-$1.28

Record

52%

88749-83182 (171931)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$30

PnL

+$14.1

Record

51%

19546-18734 (38280)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.16

Value

—

PnL

-$2.16

Record

55%

23450-18994 (42444)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$5.22

Record

65%

3778-2045 (5823)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$8.29

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$1.7

Record

64%

39528-22542 (62070)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfd4bbe2a...f4bd34

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793090100

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $2.6K

+$111.73

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$51.93

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