Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares9,838

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,310

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Down — 39%Up — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$556.77	56% 3599-2787 (6386)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 35.9¢	$819.75	—	-$819.75	56% 13876-10857 (24733)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 63.3¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	54% 15045-12613 (27658)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$217.61	56% 7295-5625 (12920)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.7¢	$502.72	—	-$502.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.1¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$720.33
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 63¢	$785.47	—	-$785.47	56% 13294-10636 (23930)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 46.6¢	$503.92	—	-$503.92	49% 4800-4966 (9766)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 70.4¢	$388.25	—	-$388.25	78% 9200-2663 (11863)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 69.2¢	$386.27	—	-$386.27	68% 98347-46616 (144963)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 71.2¢	$352.57	—	-$352.57	56% 12036-9287 (21323)
stringXX	Downavg 33.2¢	$1.2K	$3.7K	+$2.4K	50% 84-83 (167)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 72¢	$220.85	—	-$220.85	54% 10027-8513 (18540)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 49.5¢	$226.74	—	-$226.74	60% 11750-7692 (19442)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Upavg 35.2¢	$142.8	—	-$142.8	66% 111093-57313 (168406)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 82.5¢	$222.77	—	-$222.77	55% 6952-5712 (12664)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$149.26	$150.77	+$1.51	74% 101887-36252 (138139)
heyboy800	Downavg 45.7¢	$160	$350.28	+$190.27	62% 858-537 (1395)
ST std0CTR	Upavg 67.2¢	$108.65	—	-$108.65	67% 53004-26437 (79441)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$340.7	$308	-$32.7	55% 43523-35934 (79457)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.5¢	$68.72	—	-$68.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.3¢	$271.98	$308	+$36.02
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 82¢	$117.99	$100	-$17.99	51% 16861-16471 (33332)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$81.99	—	-$81.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$36	$100	+$64
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 57.3¢	$183.99	$187.79	+$3.81	55% 23450-18994 (42444)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 34.5¢	$63.18	$182.98	+$119.8	55% 16996-13641 (30637)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 32.1¢	$122.08	$313.35	+$191.28	55% 8209-6657 (14866)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$100.57	$313.35	+$212.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$21.51	—	-$21.51
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$38.44	—	-$38.44	65% 20472-11181 (31653)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$25.01	—	-$25.01	58% 50610-36742 (87352)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 52¢	$32.4	$62.31	+$29.91	65% 123475-66020 (189495)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,692.2

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$556.77

Record

56%

3599-2787 (6386)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$819.75

Value

—

PnL

-$819.75

Record

56%

13876-10857 (24733)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,485.16

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

15045-12613 (27658)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,676.62

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$217.61

Record

56%

7295-5625 (12920)

Both legs:

Up$502.7273.7¢-$502.72

Down$2,173.975.1¢+$720.33

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$785.47

Value

—

PnL

-$785.47

Record

56%

13294-10636 (23930)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$503.92

Value

—

PnL

-$503.92

Record

49%

4800-4966 (9766)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$388.25

Value

—

PnL

-$388.25

Record

78%

9200-2663 (11863)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$386.27

Value

—

PnL

-$386.27

Record

68%

98347-46616 (144963)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$352.57

Value

—

PnL

-$352.57

Record

56%

12036-9287 (21323)

stringXX

Down

Invested

$1,217.65

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

84-83 (167)

thesidehustleCTR

Invested

$220.85

Value

—

PnL

-$220.85

Record

54%

10027-8513 (18540)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$226.74

Value

—

PnL

-$226.74

Record

60%

11750-7692 (19442)

antsaslykuCTR

Invested

$142.8

Value

—

PnL

-$142.8

Record

66%

111093-57313 (168406)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$222.77

Value

—

PnL

-$222.77

Record

55%

6952-5712 (12664)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$149.26

Value

$150.77

PnL

+$1.51

Record

74%

101887-36252 (138139)

heyboy800

Down

Invested

$160

Value

$350.28

PnL

+$190.27

Record

62%

858-537 (1395)

std0CTR

Invested

$108.65

Value

—

PnL

-$108.65

Record

67%

53004-26437 (79441)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.7

Value

$308

PnL

-$32.7

Record

55%

43523-35934 (79457)

Both legs:

Up$68.7278.5¢-$68.72

Down$271.9888.3¢+$36.02

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$117.99

Value

$100

PnL

-$17.99

Record

51%

16861-16471 (33332)

Both legs:

Invested

$183.99

Value

$187.79

PnL

+$3.81

Record

55%

23450-18994 (42444)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$63.18

Value

$182.98

PnL

+$119.8

Record

55%

16996-13641 (30637)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.08

Value

$313.35

PnL

+$191.28

Record

55%

8209-6657 (14866)

Both legs:

Down$100.5732.1¢+$212.78

Up$21.5166.1¢-$21.51

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$38.44

Value

—

PnL

-$38.44

Record

65%

20472-11181 (31653)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

—

PnL

-$25.01

Record

58%

50610-36742 (87352)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$32.4

Value

$62.31

PnL

+$29.91

Record

65%

123475-66020 (189495)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5bd508a5...e6dd88

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793089800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.7K

+$556.77

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

-$819.75

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

stringXX

Down — $3.7K

+$2.4K

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