Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 33%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 27 top traders (33%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,558

Combined PnL+$6.1K

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,878

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
stringXX	Downavg 36.3¢	$3.2K	$8.8K	+$5.6K	50% 80-79 (159)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$1.1K	$977.2	-$151.73	54% 15026-12605 (27631)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$677.07	—	-$677.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$451.86	$977.2	+$525.34
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 43.4¢	$727.21	—	-$727.21	56% 13852-10844 (24696)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 59.4¢	$501.45	—	-$501.45	64% 57162-31972 (89134)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 44.1¢	$410.77	$300.5	-$110.27	56% 13275-10628 (23903)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.1¢	$255.61	—	-$255.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$155.17	$300.5	+$145.34
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$400.39	$186.59	-$213.8	55% 8191-6645 (14836)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$326.5	—	-$326.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$73.89	$186.59	+$112.7
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$302.01	$434.07	+$132.06	56% 12022-9274 (21296)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$204.51	$434.07	+$229.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$97.51	—	-$97.51
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 69.2¢	$395.17	—	-$395.17	55% 16944-13598 (30542)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$317.13	$198.18	-$118.94	54% 9990-8484 (18474)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$239.34	—	-$239.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$77.78	$198.18	+$120.4
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 83.1¢	$370	$285.92	-$84.08	60% 11734-7678 (19412)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 55.7¢	$295.2	—	-$295.2	49% 4790-4946 (9736)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$259.89	$239.39	-$20.5	68% 98276-46564 (144840)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$100.29	$239.39	+$139.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$159.6	—	-$159.6
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 74.1¢	$297.48	—	-$297.48	63% 1744-1008 (2752)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 52.9¢	$161.19	$187.37	+$26.18	55% 6935-5699 (12634)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 53.2¢	$167.56	—	-$167.56	57% 11566-8580 (20146)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Upavg 59.1¢	$103.05	—	-$103.05	55% 23433-18984 (42417)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$59.71	—	-$59.71	59% 37148-26345 (63493)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$91.08	$72	-$19.08	66% 123643-63650 (187293)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 99¢	$59.4	$60	+$0.6	65% 123417-65985 (189402)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$63.95	—	-$63.95	55% 43472-35889 (79361)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 33¢	$33.02	$100.06	+$67.04	56% 57277-44272 (101549)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$25.25	—	-$25.25	65% 3769-2033 (5802)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$17.06	$26	+$8.94	66% 98273-50731 (149004)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$34.94	—	-$19.82	65% 20395-11132 (31527)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 4.8¢	$13.12	—	-$13.12	78% 9193-2659 (11852)

stringXX

Down

Invested

$3,200

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

50%

80-79 (159)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,128.93

Value

$977.2

PnL

-$151.73

Record

54%

15026-12605 (27631)

Both legs:

Up$677.0746.6¢-$677.07

Down$451.8646.2¢+$525.34

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$727.21

Value

—

PnL

-$727.21

Record

56%

13852-10844 (24696)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$501.45

Value

—

PnL

-$501.45

Record

64%

57162-31972 (89134)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$410.77

Value

$300.5

PnL

-$110.27

Record

56%

13275-10628 (23903)

Both legs:

Up$255.6144.1¢-$255.61

Down$155.1751.6¢+$145.34

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$400.39

Value

$186.59

PnL

-$213.8

Record

55%

8191-6645 (14836)

Both legs:

Up$326.562.2¢-$326.5

Down$73.8939.6¢+$112.7

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$302.01

Value

$434.07

PnL

+$132.06

Record

56%

12022-9274 (21296)

Both legs:

Down$204.5147.1¢+$229.57

Up$97.5144¢-$97.51

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$395.17

Value

—

PnL

-$395.17

Record

55%

16944-13598 (30542)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$317.13

Value

$198.18

PnL

-$118.94

Record

54%

9990-8484 (18474)

Both legs:

Up$239.3463.7¢-$239.34

Down$77.7839.2¢+$120.4

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$370

Value

$285.92

PnL

-$84.08

Record

60%

11734-7678 (19412)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$295.2

Value

—

PnL

-$295.2

Record

49%

4790-4946 (9736)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$259.89

Value

$239.39

PnL

-$20.5

Record

68%

98276-46564 (144840)

Both legs:

Down$100.2941.9¢+$139.1

Up$159.674.3¢-$159.6

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$297.48

Value

—

PnL

-$297.48

Record

63%

1744-1008 (2752)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$161.19

Value

$187.37

PnL

+$26.18

Record

55%

6935-5699 (12634)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$167.56

Value

—

PnL

-$167.56

Record

57%

11566-8580 (20146)

sir-upalotCTR

Invested

$103.05

Value

—

PnL

-$103.05

Record

55%

23433-18984 (42417)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$59.71

Value

—

PnL

-$59.71

Record

59%

37148-26345 (63493)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$91.08

Value

$72

PnL

-$19.08

Record

66%

123643-63650 (187293)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.6

Record

65%

123417-65985 (189402)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$63.95

Value

—

PnL

-$63.95

Record

55%

43472-35889 (79361)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$33.02

Value

$100.06

PnL

+$67.04

Record

56%

57277-44272 (101549)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

—

PnL

-$25.25

Record

65%

3769-2033 (5802)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$17.06

Value

$26

PnL

+$8.94

Record

66%

98273-50731 (149004)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$34.94

Value

—

PnL

-$19.82

Record

65%

20395-11132 (31527)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

—

PnL

-$13.12

Record

78%

9193-2659 (11852)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 27 top traders (33%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa5494fb7...395d2a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793081400

Traders in this Market

stringXX

Down — $8.8K

+$5.6K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $285.92

-$84.08

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