Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 99¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,106

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Down4 traders

Total Value$446.75

Total Shares17,081

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Up 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.6¢	$4.1K	$4.9K	+$828.89	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 82¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$247.66	50% 403-397 (800)
AL almach	Upavg 78¢	$3.1K	$958.35	+$565.6	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	$380	-$120	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$51.3	$74.25	+$22.95	45% 84-104 (188)
justdanceCTR	Downavg 19.1¢	$3.1K	$66.05	$-3.1K	50% 36-36 (72)
mihaXdCTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$11.2	$0.59	-$10.61	56% 151-120 (271)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$1.12	$0.11	-$1.01	46% 3204-3750 (6954)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$4,069.57

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$828.89

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$2,833.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$247.66

Record

50%

403-397 (800)

almach

Invested

$3,082.55

Value

$958.35

PnL

+$565.6

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$380

PnL

-$120

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$51.3

Value

$74.25

PnL

+$22.95

Record

45%

84-104 (188)

justdanceCTR

Down

Invested

$3,146.48

Value

$66.05

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

50%

36-36 (72)

mihaXdCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.2

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$10.61

Record

56%

151-120 (271)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1.01

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Up 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.