Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up19¢Down81¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$350.1

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 81¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up19%

Down81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,466

Combined PnL+$390.68

Up1 trader

Total Value$7.03

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$40.59

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.9¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$220.84	51% 3277-3198 (6475)
MO mo-money	Downavg 75¢	$949.6	$1.0K	+$51.02	51% 1473-1419 (2892)
AL almach	Downavg 67.7¢	$810.61	$832.2	+$21.59	51% 1479-1409 (2888)
BO bosona	Downavg 67.2¢	$766.74	$792.88	+$26.15	51% 4729-4529 (9258)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$73.82	$93.64	+$42.52	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 45.8¢	$50.63	$16.88	+$28.58	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.5	+$0	49% 430-443 (873)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$57.87	$7.03	-$40.59	45% 69-84 (153)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,750.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$220.84

Record

51%

3277-3198 (6475)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$949.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$51.02

Record

51%

1473-1419 (2892)

almach

Down

Invested

$810.61

Value

$832.2

PnL

+$21.59

Record

51%

1479-1409 (2888)

bosona

Down

Invested

$766.74

Value

$792.88

PnL

+$26.15

Record

51%

4729-4529 (9258)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

suntori<$100

Down

Invested

$73.82

Value

$93.64

PnL

+$42.52

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$50.63

Value

$16.88

PnL

+$28.58

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$57.87

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$40.59

Record

45%

69-84 (153)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.0%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.