Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up38¢Down62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$150.94

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 62.5¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up38%

Down63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,163

Combined PnL+$265.16

Up2 traders

Total Value$411.08

Total Shares934

Combined PnL-$114.21

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55.1¢	$869.96	$969.97	+$100.01	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
AL almach	Downavg 52.7¢	$429.12	$537.84	+$108.72	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 56.2¢	$469.61	$367.52	-$102.09	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
MO mo-money	Downavg 44.1¢	$213.35	$236.89	+$23.54	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
BO bosona	Downavg 44.1¢	$206.19	$208.27	+$2.08	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$72.65	$91.42	+$18.77	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 40¢	$80	$89	+$9	50% 427-435 (862)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$55.69	$43.56	-$12.13	47% 66-74 (140)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$24.66	$27.7	+$3.04	51% 355-347 (702)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$869.96

Value

$969.97

PnL

+$100.01

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

almach

Down

Invested

$429.12

Value

$537.84

PnL

+$108.72

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$469.61

Value

$367.52

PnL

-$102.09

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$213.35

Value

$236.89

PnL

+$23.54

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

bosona

Down

Invested

$206.19

Value

$208.27

PnL

+$2.08

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$72.65

Value

$91.42

PnL

+$18.77

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$80

Value

$89

PnL

+$9

Record

50%

427-435 (862)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$55.69

Value

$43.56

PnL

-$12.13

Record

47%

66-74 (140)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$24.66

Value

$27.7

PnL

+$3.04

Record

51%

355-347 (702)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.1%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.