Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (76%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 24¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up76¢Down24¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$181.89

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 24¢

-43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up76%

Down24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,313

Combined PnL-$63.98

Down6 traders

Total Value$874.73

Total Shares2,294

Combined PnL-$117.91

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$1.2K	$855.19	-$329.95	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.7¢	$580.56	$575.3	-$5.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$604.58	$279.89	-$324.69
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 50¢	$392.32	$411.77	+$19.45	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 84.9¢	$319.5	$283.96	-$35.54	50% 336-335 (671)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 50.2¢	$242.03	$265.33	+$23.3	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
SU suntori	Upavg 55.6¢	$280.36	$251.92	-$28.44	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 19.2¢	$100.8	$94.62	-$6.19	49% 421-430 (851)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$158.91	$58.08	-$100.83	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 29.5¢	$73.82	$23	+$9.07	47% 60-69 (129)
GH ghorrockCTR	Downavg 49.3¢	$119.95	$21.93	-$62.71	52% 1734-1576 (3310)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,185.14

Value

$855.19

PnL

-$329.95

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

Both legs:

Up$580.5677.7¢-$5.26

Down$604.5849.7¢-$324.69

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$392.32

Value

$411.77

PnL

+$19.45

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$319.5

Value

$283.96

PnL

-$35.54

Record

50%

336-335 (671)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$242.03

Value

$265.33

PnL

+$23.3

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

suntori

Invested

$280.36

Value

$251.92

PnL

-$28.44

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

Anon455CTR

Down

Invested

$100.8

Value

$94.62

PnL

-$6.19

Record

49%

421-430 (851)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$158.91

Value

$58.08

PnL

-$100.83

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.82

Value

$23

PnL

+$9.07

Record

47%

60-69 (129)

ghorrockCTR

Down

Invested

$119.95

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$62.71

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.3%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$280.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

380.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.