Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up37¢Down63¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$34.24

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 63¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up37%

Down63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,001

Combined PnL+$104.27

Up3 traders

Total Value$624.49

Total Shares889

Combined PnL-$70.02

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$70.92	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
GH ghorrock	Downavg 54.8¢	$109.88	$105.75	+$21.49	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$140.17	$89.84	-$50.33	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$54.34	$34.65	-$19.69	45% 54-65 (119)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$30.05	$32.45	+$2.4	49% 416-426 (842)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 43¢	$11.89	$17.98	+$6.09	49% 1297-1335 (2632)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 59¢	$17.17	$17.76	+$0.58	50% 323-319 (642)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 56¢	$11.4	$13.73	+$2.34	50% 1311-1307 (2618)
justdance<$100	Downavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.95	+$0.45	53% 31-28 (59)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,055.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70.92

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

ghorrock

Down

Invested

$109.88

Value

$105.75

PnL

+$21.49

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$140.17

Value

$89.84

PnL

-$50.33

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$54.34

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$19.69

Record

45%

54-65 (119)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$30.05

Value

$32.45

PnL

+$2.4

Record

49%

416-426 (842)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$11.89

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$6.09

Record

49%

1297-1335 (2632)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$17.17

Value

$17.76

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

323-319 (642)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$11.4

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$2.34

Record

50%

1311-1307 (2618)

justdance<$100

Down

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

31-28 (59)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.