Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (82%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 18¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up82¢Down18¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$105.77

Smart Money Entry

31.7¢ → 18¢

-43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Up 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up82%

Down18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$188.23

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$19.01

Down5 traders

Total Value$283.2

Total Shares1,168

Combined PnL-$86.76

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$475.27	-$24.73	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$345.27	+$95.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$130	-$120
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 26.6¢	$509.23	$362.67	-$146.56	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.6¢	$365.78	$199.03	-$166.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 75¢	$143.46	$163.64	+$20.18
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 83¢	$165.37	$141.99	-$23.38	51% 320-313 (633)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83¢	$114.54	$111.78	-$2.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$50.83	$30.21	-$20.62
GH ghorrock	Upavg 85.5¢	$247.94	$114.76	-$42.67	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 37.2¢	$132.2	$92.3	-$39.9	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 33.4¢	$105.77	$82.24	-$23.52	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 33¢	$102.3	$80.6	-$21.7	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$49.81	$73.47	+$23.66	43% 48-63 (111)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 16.2¢	$28	$25.99	-$2.01	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 12.7¢	$1.7	$2.07	+$0.37	49% 414-425 (839)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$475.27

PnL

-$24.73

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$95.27

Down$25050¢-$120

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$509.23

Value

$362.67

PnL

-$146.56

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

Both legs:

Down$365.7826.6¢-$166.75

Up$143.4675¢+$20.18

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$165.37

Value

$141.99

PnL

-$23.38

Record

51%

320-313 (633)

Both legs:

Up$114.5483¢-$2.76

Down$50.8332¢-$20.62

ghorrock

Invested

$247.94

Value

$114.76

PnL

-$42.67

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$132.2

Value

$92.3

PnL

-$39.9

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$105.77

Value

$82.24

PnL

-$23.52

Record

50%

1286-1280 (2566)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$102.3

Value

$80.6

PnL

-$21.7

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$49.81

Value

$73.47

PnL

+$23.66

Record

43%

48-63 (111)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28

Value

$25.99

PnL

-$2.01

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

414-425 (839)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Up 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.1%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$398.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

498.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.