Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (86%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 14¢ · $991 held · ends Nov 14

Up86¢Down14¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$990.79

Combined PnL

$22.99

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 14.5¢

-53% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Up 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up86%

Down14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$180.65

Total Shares579

Combined PnL+$2.23

Up3 traders

Total Value$123.65

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$20.75

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$5	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$200	-$50
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$206.9	$191.49	-$15.41	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$86.18	$120.02	+$33.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$120.71	$71.47	-$49.24
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$90.29	$90.27	-$0.02	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$55.49	$68.31	+$12.82	42% 42-58 (100)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$32.7	$46.14	+$13.44	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$38.02	$39.07	+$1.06	50% 306-309 (615)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 22.8¢	$40.66	$38.33	-$2.32	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$9.46	$12.98	+$3.52	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
GH ghorrock<$100	Upavg 67¢	$18.15	$9.19	-$5.51	52% 1608-1475 (3083)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢-$50

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$206.9

Value

$191.49

PnL

-$15.41

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

Both legs:

Up$86.1850.3¢+$33.83

Down$120.7150.7¢-$49.24

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90.29

Value

$90.27

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$68.31

PnL

+$12.82

Record

42%

42-58 (100)

suntori<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$46.14

PnL

+$13.44

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.02

Value

$39.07

PnL

+$1.06

Record

50%

306-309 (615)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.66

Value

$38.33

PnL

-$2.32

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.46

Value

$12.98

PnL

+$3.52

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.15

Value

$9.19

PnL

-$5.51

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Up 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.4%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$509.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

609.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.