Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Up5¢Down95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$171.62

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 95.5¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up5%

Down96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,842

Combined PnL+$181.21

Up1 trader

Total Value$6.28

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$9.59

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 78.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$101.69	51% 2791-2702 (5493)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 89.9¢	$859.99	$844.98	-$15.01	50% 297-296 (593)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	55% 2993-2461 (5454)
GH ghorrock	Downavg 75.8¢	$297.59	$337.92	+$40.33	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
BO bosona	Downavg 86.2¢	$230.13	$233.11	+$18.61	51% 4446-4332 (8778)
MO mo-money	Downavg 84.4¢	$145.37	$152.83	+$7.46	49% 1190-1231 (2421)
AL almach	Downavg 82¢	$128.73	$110.46	+$21.96	50% 1203-1208 (2411)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 89.9¢	$94.43	$96	+$6.17	46% 42-49 (91)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 10.1¢	$15.87	$6.28	-$9.59	46% 2333-2789 (5122)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,308.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$101.69

Record

51%

2791-2702 (5493)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$859.99

Value

$844.98

PnL

-$15.01

Record

50%

297-296 (593)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

2993-2461 (5454)

ghorrock

Down

Invested

$297.59

Value

$337.92

PnL

+$40.33

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

bosona

Down

Invested

$230.13

Value

$233.11

PnL

+$18.61

Record

51%

4446-4332 (8778)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$145.37

Value

$152.83

PnL

+$7.46

Record

49%

1190-1231 (2421)

almach

Down

Invested

$128.73

Value

$110.46

PnL

+$21.96

Record

50%

1203-1208 (2411)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Down

Invested

$94.43

Value

$96

PnL

+$6.17

Record

46%

42-49 (91)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$15.87

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$9.59

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.