Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 71¢ · $976 held · ends Nov 13

Up71¢Down29¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$976.46

Combined PnL

$27.1

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 70.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up71%

Down30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$269.85

Total Shares382

Combined PnL+$25.06

Down3 traders

Total Value$53.8

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$2.04

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$545	+$45	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$325	+$75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$220	-$30
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 64.5¢	$160.8	$169.85	+$9.04	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$121.81	$107.81	-$14	51% 279-272 (551)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$93.21	$81.05	-$12.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$28.6	$26.76	-$1.84
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$48.81	$64.35	+$15.54	45% 29-36 (65)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 28¢	$36.75	$37.45	+$0.7	50% 1107-1127 (2234)
GH ghorrock<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$54.82	$26.6	+$0.76	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 25.5¢	$10.2	$11.4	+$1.2	49% 1097-1145 (2242)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 66¢	$9.34	$9.06	-$0.28	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$4.81	$4.95	+$0.14	51% 4353-4244 (8597)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$545

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$75

Down$25050¢-$30

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$160.8

Value

$169.85

PnL

+$9.04

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$121.81

Value

$107.81

PnL

-$14

Record

51%

279-272 (551)

Both legs:

Up$93.2169¢-$12.16

Down$28.642.8¢-$1.84

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$48.81

Value

$64.35

PnL

+$15.54

Record

45%

29-36 (65)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.75

Value

$37.45

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

1107-1127 (2234)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$54.82

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

suntori<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.06

PnL

-$0.28

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

4353-4244 (8597)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.9%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.