Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 99.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,370

Combined PnL-$551.67

Up5 traders

Total Value$593.63

Total Shares979

Combined PnL-$597.93

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Up 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 79.2¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$174.56	51% 2460-2406 (4866)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 79.3¢	$909.6	$614.84	-$294.76	51% 276-268 (544)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$514.58	+$14.58	55% 2690-2170 (4860)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 95.9¢	$144.91	$99.51	-$39.71	43% 27-36 (63)
SU suntori	Downavg 99.9¢	$131.48	$87.51	-$43.98	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 39.9¢	$87.18	$77.4	-$9.78	50% 354-360 (714)
GH ghorrock	Downavg 90.2¢	$151.8	$27.49	+$1.34	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 13¢	$706.47	$1.08	-$190.61	51% 4344-4232 (8576)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 14.8¢	$853.34	$0.47	-$227.29	49% 1085-1134 (2219)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 3¢	$696.05	$0.1	-$184.83	50% 1100-1113 (2213)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,712.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$174.56

Record

51%

2460-2406 (4866)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$909.6

Value

$614.84

PnL

-$294.76

Record

51%

276-268 (544)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$514.58

PnL

+$14.58

Record

55%

2690-2170 (4860)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$144.91

Value

$99.51

PnL

-$39.71

Record

43%

27-36 (63)

suntori

Down

Invested

$131.48

Value

$87.51

PnL

-$43.98

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$87.18

Value

$77.4

PnL

-$9.78

Record

50%

354-360 (714)

ghorrock

Down

Invested

$151.8

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$706.47

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$190.61

Record

51%

4344-4232 (8576)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$853.34

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$227.29

Record

49%

1085-1134 (2219)

almachCTR

Invested

$696.05

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$184.83

Record

50%

1100-1113 (2213)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Up 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.